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George Patterson <br />September 19, 2013 <br />Page 3 <br />reasonable estimate of the inflow for the 1 North mine area. <br />The 14- acre -foot inflow estimate is based on the observations provided by onsite personnel who <br />were responsible for the dewatering of the mine and aware of discharges of dewatering water within <br />the mine. The estimate is based on flow information for periods when water was not discharged to <br />the 1 North area (pre -1987 and 1995) and the understanding that inflow and dewatering rates have <br />decreased since areas have been mined. This is consistent with general ground water movement <br />especially in the low permeable material surrounding the mine. When a coal seam is first mined, <br />mine inflow is relatively high as the water in the coal seam drains into the mine, but as the water in <br />the coal seam drains, the inflow rates decreases with time. Accordingly, the 14- acre -foot per year <br />inflow rate was based on information from 1985, 1986 and 1995 and the general understanding that <br />inflow rates are decreasing and was projected from the available information to estimate the inflow <br />rate in the year 2000 for the start of our analysis. <br />Conceptual Models <br />As indicated in the July 19, 2013 evaluation prepared by our office, three conceptual models were <br />prepared to analyze the timing of mine refilling to the elevation of the bottom of the MW -NW well <br />casing and the elevation of the partial obstruction in the MW -NW well. Janet Binns has requested <br />clarification of how the 3 North mining area was considered in the conceptual models and the <br />potential connection of this area with the rest of the mine. <br />The first of the three conceptual models considered the entire mine to be hydrogeologically <br />connected and that the mine refills as a single hydrogeologic unit. In this conceptual model, the 3 <br />North mining area was simply considered part of the entire mine volume which refills with the rest <br />of the mine as water levels within the mine rose. Accordingly, the mine refilling timing calculation <br />for Conceptual Model No. 1 included the 3 North area with the entire mine area. <br />The second of the three conceptual models considered the filling the 1 North, I '/s North and 2 North <br />mining areas as single hydrogeologic unit. This model assumed that the seals in the 1 North, 1 %2 <br />North and 2 North areas hold perfectly to allow water entering these mining areas to remain <br />sequestered. Accordingly, the mine refilling timing calculation for Conceptual Model No. 2 did not <br />include the 3 North mining area because it was not included in the areas sequestered by the installed <br />seals. <br />The third of the three conceptual models considered the filling of the 1 North, 1 '/z North, 2 North <br />and 3 North mine areas as a single hydrogeologic unit separate from the West Mains and the rest of <br />the mine. This model assumes that the seals in the North areas do not restrict the localized flow of <br />water, but that the North areas are hydrogeologically separated from the West Mains and the rest of <br />the mine workings. Accordingly, the mine refilling timing calculation for Conceptual Model No. 3 <br />included the 3 North mine area. <br />