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<br /> <br /> <br />DEPAn.:ri\.~ ENT Of <br />NATUI{.AL <br />ItESOUltCES <br /> <br /> <br />MARCH 2006 DROUGHT AND FLOOD UPDATE <br /> <br />Water Availabilitv Task Force Co-Chairs <br /> <br />Flood Task Force Chair <br /> <br />Jack Byers, DWR - 303-866-3581 <br />Email -jack.byers@state.co.us <br /> <br />Tom Browning, CWCB - 303-866-4804 <br />Email -tom.browning@state.co.us <br /> <br />Veva McCaig, CWCB - 303-866-3339 <br />Email-genoveva.mccaig@state.co.us <br /> <br />For a complete summary of the March 14,2006 Joint Meeting of the Water Availability and Flood Task <br />Forces, please visit the CWCB website at www.cwcb.state.co.us. <br />Executive Summary <br />In Colorado, the dividing line between parts of the state that are experiencing above average precipitation conditions and <br />those with below average conditions is the Gunnison basin on the west slope and the Arkansas basin on the east. <br /> <br />According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, extreme southern Colorado is currently in a moderate drought now. <br />Despite the short-term relief, there are indications that the spring will be dry and warm for Colorado. As a result, the <br />drought is expected to persist, expanding into eastern Colorado. <br /> <br />The mountain basins along & north ofl-70 will maintain 115% -150% of normal precipitation. Mountain basins <br />south ofl-70 will play "catch-up" with more frequent spring storms but still fall below normal (65-80%) for the year. <br /> <br />In the southwest portion of the state, from south ofHwy 50 and west ofl-25 to the ColoradolUtah border, Rio Grande <br />basin farmers & ranchers are preparing for another 2002 drought year. The southeast areas of the Arkansas basin, <br />south ofHwy 50 and east ofl-25, are showing similar drought conditions. <br /> <br />The water supply outlook for 2006 indicates that parts of the Arkansas, Rio Grande and combined San Juan, Animas, <br />Dolores, and San Miguel River basins are projected to have water supplies below 50% of average this year. <br /> <br />The National Interagency Fire Center's Wildland Fire Outlook indicates an above normal fire potential on the eastern <br />plains, and southeast portion of Colorado due to low moisture levels and high winds. Persistent dry and windy <br />conditions on the eastern plains are also creating concern for the agricultural sector in that region. <br /> <br />For the next six months the majority of the state is predicted to have a mixture of wet and dry conditions with the <br />southern part of the state remaining extremely dry. The eastern plains are predicted to have below normal <br />precipitation during the spring and early summer. <br /> <br />This water year, Colorado appears to have an overall low flood risk from snowmelt runoff streamflows. However, there is <br />a significant chance of an extended hot spell (5-7 days) during mid to late May that could produce some flooding flows in <br />portions of the state. It is important to note than many of Colorado's intense and damaging floods are historically due to <br />general rainstorms or flash floods. Currently the areas of Colorado at greater risks for flooding are as follows: <br />The Roaring Fork River <br />Yampa White --Spring/May snowmelt runoff <br />Colorado basin south tributaries--Spring/May snowmelt runoff <br />Front Range-- flash floods <br />Southwest mountains flash flood --possibly from a late July monsoon season <br />Below Dillon Reservoir <br />Areas near Craig, CO <br />