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<br />Summary of Major Findings 7 <br /> <br />N <br />en <br />00 <br />en <br /> <br />damages based on lO-year average salinity for <br />both the 500 mg/L and 334 mgIL bases for <br />agriculture, households, utilities, industries, <br />policy, and the total. These annual costs may <br />rise significantly in future years because each of <br />several factors could lead to higher damages due <br />to increasing salinity levels; growth in popula- <br />tion; and growth: in the rate of industrial develop- <br />ment. This is a substantial cost, falling as it does <br />on households, farmers, and industry in the <br />Lower Colorado River region. <br /> <br />Other Issues <br /> <br />For most pe9ple salinity has no known <br />health effect and may be beneficial inasmuch as <br />drinking hard water appears to reduce hyperten- <br />sion to some degree. It is known that saline <br />water, when aCcOmpanied by hardness (as is <br />Colorado River water), can form a protective <br />scale on water pipes, reducing corrosion and the <br />uptake of potentially toxic metals, such as lead. <br /> <br />The second'IfY or indirect effects of salinity <br />may positively affect economies in other parts of <br />the country as agriculture or manufacturing <br />shifts locations from the Lower Colorado River <br />Basin. However, most of the damage effects will <br />be shifts of expenditures in the economic sec- <br />tors, e.g., households or industry, affected by <br />salinity. Without better knowledge of income <br />and budget constraints and of price elasticities - <br />the effects are unclear. <br /> <br />It is known, however, that detrimental <br />salinity effects occur in the agriculture of north- <br />ern Mexico, thus creating local economic <br />problems and international political impacts. <br /> <br />The Computer Program <br /> <br />The user-friendly computer program is <br />designcd to run on an IBM-compatible PC, with <br />or without graphics features. It calculates four <br />types of damagei; - agricultural, household, <br />utility, and industrial - and provides these <br />estimates in disaggregated or summary form for <br />the entire Lower Basin. Damage estinlates can <br />be displayed and printed either in graphic or <br />tabular form. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />The program is menu driven, with internal <br />instructions for updating input data and for run- <br />ning the program. The user should note, <br />however, that while the program is easy to use, it <br />produces damage estimates that are only as <br />accurate as the data within it. These data <br />represent the best efforts of the study team <br />within the severe resource limitations of this <br />study and are, at best, incompletely refmed. <br /> <br />, <br />~; :.i, <br /> <br />By running the program repetitively for <br />those items whose value is uncertain, a range of <br />salinity damage estimates will be provided that <br />will more accurately reflect the limitations of the <br />data, As more accurate data are developed, the <br />results of the computer program will become <br />increasingly refined. <br /> <br />?' <br /> <br />Strengths, Weaknesses, <br />Recommendations <br /> <br />;.- <br /> <br />As has been repeatedly emphasized <br />throughout this report, a computer model (or <br />even manual analysis) is only as good as the data <br />that goes into it. Even so, the damage estimates <br />presented here are believed to be substantially <br />more accurate, comprehensive, and useful in <br />planning salinity control measures than previous <br />estimates have been, <br /> <br />~ 7 <br />, <br /> <br />, <br />'"! <br /> <br />,:\ <br /> <br />l <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />Several commenters suggested that the crop <br />yield and service life data analyses would be im- <br />proved if uncertainty analyses were included. In- <br />stead of a single set of data values covering a <br />range of TDS, a probability distribution of the <br />results would be produced. Thus, crop damages <br />or household damages could be accompanied by <br />a confidence level or standard deviation value <br />that would better reflect the range of data into <br />the statement of fmal damages, i.e. $300 million <br />per year :to $37 million. <br /> <br />-'; <br />",'\ <br /> <br />~.1 <br /> <br />:1 <br /> <br />d <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />-.} <br /> <br />The authors believe a thorough review of pre- <br />vious studies has been undertaken and presented <br />in one study. Further, research programs under- <br />taken by trade associations and man ufacturers <br />have been discovered and included in the anal- <br />ysis. Interest in possible future study by various <br />industry groups has been stimulated that will <br />directly improve both the calculation and attri- <br />bution of damage from saline water (i.e., Gas <br />Research Institute on water heaters and the <br /> <br />1~ <br /> <br />. <br />:~ <br /> <br />: <br />J~ <br /> <br />.' <br /> <br />. <br />, <br />,0 <br /> <br />'~i <br /> <br />I <br />o <br />