Laserfiche WebLink
<br />N <br />en <br />co <br />o <br /> <br />SUMMARY OF MAJOR FINDINGS <br /> <br />This research report discusses fmdings from <br />a study designed to develop a method of <br />forecasting economic impacts of salinity of the <br />Colorado River upon various users of Colorado <br />River water in the southwestern United States. <br /> <br />One objective of this research was to up- <br />date, revise, clarify, and refine the estimates of <br />economic damages from salinity in the Colorado <br />River that had been described in earlier studies, <br />particularly that of Jay C. Andersen and Alan P. <br />Kleinman, et al., in Salinity Management Options <br />for the Colorado River [1978] and the subsequent <br />summary by Kleinman and Bruce F. Brown, <br />Colorado River Salillity: Economic Impacts on <br />Agricultural, Municipal and Industrial Users <br />[1980]. Another objective was to provide a bet- <br />ter means of estimating present and future <br />salinity damages, basically through the develop- <br />ment of a comprehensive and user-friendly per- <br />sonal computer program. A final objective <br />addressed unresolved questions and issues about <br />Colorado River salinity, including areas of <br />damage not previously included in estimates. <br /> <br />These major objectives were undertaken in <br />research severely limited, not only in time and <br />funding, but also constrained in scope. The <br />Bureau of Reclamation placed the following con- <br />straints on the research: (1) only direct damages <br />were to be considered; (2) only damages within <br />U.S. borders were to be considered; (3) damages <br />could not be separated as to ion composition or <br />other constituents of the water; and (4) a basin- <br />wide perspective was to be maintained. <br /> <br />Primarily because of the limitations of time <br />(eleven months) and funding (0,71 person-years <br />of professional effort), the major emphasis of the <br />study was devoted to three tasks: (1) rethiuking <br />the concepts of salinity damage to determine if <br />other types of damage had heretofore been over- <br />looked or neglected; (2) exploring new as well as <br />existing methods of calculating future salinity <br />damages to assure that all significant factors that <br />affect damage estimates are considered; and (3) <br />designing a comprehensive computer model and <br /> <br />1 <br /> <br />calculation program to allow many persons to <br />independently conduct forecasts according to <br />their choice of assumptions for the value of <br />computational factors. The concepts, methods of <br />calculation, and particularly, the computer <br />program are considered to be of much higher <br />quality than the data which are available to use <br />in the model, despite a new effort to find better <br />data sources. The data deficiencies could not be <br />remedied with the resources available to the <br />study tearn. <br /> <br />Because it is good economic research when <br />dealing with such a complex topic that is subject <br />to the above mentioned limitations and data con- <br />straints, the authors have adhered to the dictum <br />of Economics Professor Emeritus Reuben <br />Zubrow, who maintains that it is better to be <br />loosely correct than to be precisely incorrect. <br />Nowhere is this dictum mOre true than in <br />attempting to dcfme the economic damages <br />caused by salinity in the water of the Colorado <br />River. <br /> <br />Water quality damage itself is a complex sub- <br />ject that can involve the composition, tempera- <br />ture, and velocity of the water, the type of <br />treatment the water receives; the way in which <br />water is used; and the very definition of what is a <br />damage. For all these reasons, damage can <br />rarely be fully and specifically attributed to <br />salinity alone. However, salinity is one water <br />quality constituent that is generally known and <br />understood (where some others are not), and <br />the temptation to attribute damage can be great. <br />In the areas covered by this study, some types of <br />damage can be more clearly attributed to salinity <br />than others, but few damages can be fully <br />accounted for without more specific and com- <br />prehensive study engaging a broader range of dis- <br />ciplines - science, engineering, chemistry, <br />biology, and social science, as wen as economics. <br />This report, therefore, presents a "loosely cor- <br />rect" picture of economic damages that can, all <br />or in large part, be attributed to salinity in the <br />Colorado River. <br /> <br />"'--->0 <br />