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<br />describes the amount of salinity control needed between now and 2020. Salt reduction targets <br />contained within the Plan of Implementation were created by computing the salinity control needed <br />to offset future water development using mass balance techniques. In determining these targets, the <br />o Forum looks at a number off actors. <br />N <br />w <br />w In preparing the 1996 Review report, which considered the quantity of additional salinity <br />control needed between 1996 and 2015, the Forum was guided by river model simulations conducted <br />by Reclamation. Since 1996, Reclamation has been working to create a new river model that could <br />be used to predict future salinity levels in the Colorado River Basin. Because the model was not <br />functional in 1999, the 1999 Review used salinity control targets established by the 1996 <br />simulations. This resulted in a projected salinity control effort that specified an average control level <br />of 47,000jons per year of additional salinity control between 1999 and 2015. Reclamation's efforts <br />to develop and refine the river model's capabilities for projecting the River's salinity concentrations <br />continue. For this reason, simulations of the River's salinity concentration are not yet available for <br />this Review. Accordingly, the Forum has decided the current target salinity control level through <br />2020 for this Review should not be less then the target computed using the last available simulations. <br />Utilizing that philosophy and the rate of control identified in the 1999 Review the target for 2020 <br />would be 1.76 million tons per year. <br /> <br />In. order to verify that the 1999 Review methodology is still valid for today's conditions, <br />Reclamation was asked to make additional analyses of to day's conditions and project salinity control <br />needs. Using a computer spreadsheet approach, Reclamation reviewed current salinity <br />concentrations at Hoover Dam and factored in water use anticipated between today and 2020. <br />Reclamation estimates that in order to maintain existing (2001) salinity levels, approximately <br />1.86 million tons per year will need to be controlled by 2020. <br /> <br />Reclamation has also begun analyzing the concept not included in previous analyses, that <br />existing measures will most likely become less effective or may potentially be abandoned over a <br />sufficiently long interval of time. Reclamation's concept anticipates that measures installed through <br />the USDA program have a life expectancy of 15 to 20 years before they begin to deteriorate, need <br />major maintenance or fail. Significant funding and implementation of salinity control activities <br />under the USDA program began in 1986. Those measures first installed are now older than 15 years <br />and, by the year 2020, almost all USDA measures !lOW in place will be 20 years or more old. <br />Measures installed by Reclamation are notof major concern during the next 10 years on account of <br />the longer life expectancy of these measures (such as canal lining). Reclamation has preliminarily <br />estimated that potentially up to 250,000 tons per year of previously installed USDA salinity control <br />measures may not be functioning at their full installed level by 2020 due to aging and deteriorating <br />performance. It is again emphasized that these estimates are very preliminary in nature. Studies are <br />already underway to verify these estimates and to begin to quantify this need and are not included <br />in either the 1.76 million or 1.86 million figure. <br /> <br />After comparing the two methodologies described above, the Basin states determined a <br />reasonable target for salinity control to be 1.8 million tons per year, which is the approximate mid- <br /> <br />2-8 <br />