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Explicitly includes all water diversions and return flows Driven by available records In this analyses operated with three levels of demand: Existing (calibrates model to gage records) Baseline (includes diversion capability with existing facilities) Near Term Future Demand Levels (25 years out) (includes some diversions contemplated in the Baseline analysis, future growth increments per BBe) Long Term Demand Levels (50 years out) (includes some diversions contemplated in the Baseline analysis, future growth increments per BBe) Reported montWy average values are in cubic feet per second Target flows for CRDSS modeling need to reflect desired monthly average values. Recognizing that day to day flow variation has occurred historically (both per and post human influence) such variability should be included in any consideration of the flow regime. As a monthly average flow target input into CRDSS may be exceeded just as much as it is not met the flows during the months of August, September and October should be considered in comparison to a management target that is higher than the desired minimum flow. To reflect this in the review of the CRDSS data consider the following: Modde, et al have recommended a flow target of 93 cfs. In 31 of the 64 years of record this flow has not been met for the entire study period. In 17 of the 64 years this flow has not been met for at least 14 consecutive days. The study conditions are "drought" or extreme low flow conditions. To provide a modeling target that will assure compliance with the minimum flow recommendation use the 93 cfs plus 1/2 a standard deviation of the daily variability within the lower 20 percentile month (by volume) of the study months. This results in modeling targets of: August 93 + 1/2(66) = 126 cfs September 93 + 1/2(44) = 115 cfs October 93 + 1/2(44) = 115 cfs Theoretically if the data is normally distributed (not), use of a