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<br />13380
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<br />Federal Register / Vol. 59, No, 54 / Monday, March 21, 1994 / Rules and Regulations
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<br />"with .fish" scenario was constructed by finance, insurance, and real estate recreation services sector is also a wry
<br />analyzing potential changes in sectors, which produca 18.4 percent and significant part of total employment at
<br />economic activity that may occur due to 14.9 percent oftotal output, 10.5 percent. Combined agricultural
<br />the critical habitat designations and!or respectively. The recreation services employment is approximately 4,3
<br />other protection and recovery efforts for sector produces 7.7 percent of the total percent of total employment (Brookshire
<br />endangered fish, output mid the combined agricultural et al. 1993).
<br />sectors are responsible for 3,0 percent of a!
<br />Econo!riic Setting the total output {Brookshire et al. 1993). Slote and Region Economic Impacts
<br />E . Outp I Three conclusions were obtained from
<br />conol7UC u Emplovrnenl
<br />,... the economic analysis (Table 1): First,
<br />Economic output measures the value Approximately 22.0 million people regional economic impacts associated
<br />of all goods and services produced and! are employed in the Basin economy. with critical habitat designation are
<br />or consumed in a regional economy, The largest employment sectors within positive for the Basin. Second, the State-
<br />The seven State Basin region generates the Basin States are the public sector level impacts are not distributed evenly
<br />about $1.3 trillion annually in economic (16.9 percent of total employment), and over States in th.. Basin, Finally, the
<br />output. This output is dominated by the the combined manufacturing sector percent deviation in the economy from
<br />combined manufacturing and the (15.4 percent oftotal employment). The the "without fish" scenario is small,
<br />
<br />TABLE 1.---ANNUAUZED IMPACTS ($1991 MIWONS) OF CRrnCAL HABITAT DESIGNATION IN EACH STATE AND THE COLO-
<br />RADO RIvER BASIN. PARENTHESES ( ) = PERCENT CHANGE IN THE STATE AND REGiONAl ECONOMIES DUE TO DES-
<br />IGNATION. (AFTER BROOKSHIRE ET AL 1994) . .
<br />
<br />State
<br />
<br />Arizona _..;__'__.__.'..._..._'.........._.._......_.___._______'
<br />
<br />Cal~omia __.____.........__.._................__.......__._....__..:...___
<br />
<br />Colorado',
<br />NevaelS ~
<br />
<br />-..----..-...................--.......
<br />
<br />.....-.-.....-.........---..---.
<br />
<br />New M~~ :__..._....._.".........'..........._...'......'.....__....__._..___
<br />
<br />Utih ..
<br />
<br />.-----.......-..--..........--...-.....-..---....
<br />
<br />-..'
<br />
<br />Wyoming..;~"_........___....,...................,",.,____......,....___.._
<br />
<br />Basin __-'-_.._...._.....,......._..........,..........__....._......._...._..
<br />
<br />The projected impacts on th..
<br />economies ofvarious Stat..s ranged from
<br />about -$12.273 million in New M..xico
<br />to about.+$16.751 million in California
<br />measured as annualized values (Table
<br />1). However, projected n"l!ativ.. impacts
<br />. that conlcloccur in the various State
<br />economies. were so small when
<br />compared to the base economies that
<br />they are probably nonexistent, ranging
<br />from 0,0008 percent in Arizona to
<br />0.0279 percent in New Mexico. Some
<br />States could experience small but
<br />pasitiv.. impacts (e,g" California and
<br />Nevada), . .
<br />Impacts on earnings. indirect business
<br />taxes, and personal income taxes are
<br />
<br /> Indirect busi- > Personal in--
<br />Oulp<rt Earnin9 ness taxes. come
<br />(% change) (% change) (% change) taxes
<br />(% change)
<br />-1.049 - 0.201 -0,048 - 0.050
<br />(.0008) (.0004) (.0006) (.0004)
<br />+16.751 +2.850 +0.521 +0.720
<br />(.0013) (.0007) (.IlOO8) . (.0007)
<br />-0.848 +0.850 -0,1'1 '. +0.213
<br />(.0006) (.0020) (,0020) . (.0020)
<br />+7,014 . +3.369 +0.582 . +0.842
<br />(.0148) (.0164) (.0182) (.0164)
<br />-12273 -1.511 -0;586 -0.378
<br />(.0279) (.0110) (.0204) (.0110)
<br />-3.628 -0.718 -0281 -0.180
<br />(.0060) (.0039) . (.0090) (.0040) ,
<br />-0.359 - 0.048 - D-023 .. -0.012
<br />(.0020) (.0008) (.0020) (.0008)
<br />+6.470 +3.704 +0.136 +1.049
<br />(.0003) (.0006) (,0002) (.0006)
<br />
<br />organi2ed in the same way as those for
<br />output (Table 1). The conclusions
<br />expressed for output hold also for the
<br />earnings, indirect business taxes, and
<br />personal income taxes impacts
<br />(Brookshire et al, 11194),
<br />
<br />Employment
<br />
<br />Table 2 presents State and regional
<br />incremental impacts on employment
<br />over th.. 25-year period of th.. study.
<br />The values in the table represent th..
<br />deviation in employment, measured as
<br />jobs. between the without fish and with
<br />fish scenarios. As with other aspects of
<br />the economy, employment impacts are
<br />both positive and negativ.. both across
<br />
<br />States and ov..r tim'e. For New Mexico,
<br />the employm..nt impect is .
<br />approximately 2 jobs foregone in 1995
<br />and this figure rises to 613 jobs foregone
<br />by the year 2020. On the other hand, for
<br />California there is a gain of
<br />approximately 20 jobs in 1995 and this
<br />positive impact increases to a projected
<br />1,162 jobs by 2020. For the Basin as a
<br />wbole, the employment impacts are
<br />positive through the study period. In
<br />1995, the projected gain is
<br />approximately 60 jobs. By 2020, the
<br />gains in..mploym..nt are projected to be
<br />approximately 393 jobs,
<br />
<br />TABLE 2.- IMPACTS OF THE CRITICAL HABITAT DESIGNATION ON EMPLOYMENT IN EACH STATE AND THE COLORADO
<br />RIVER BASIN, EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS REPRESENT JOBS FOREGONE OR GAINED IN THE FUTURE THROUGH THE YEAR
<br />2020. (AFTER BROOKSHIRE ET AL 1994)
<br />
<br /> State 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
<br />Arizona .._ ..................................................................-......... -1.85 -4.68 -7.77 -12-08 -1&86 - 25.83
<br />Calnomia ....---.................................................................................. +19.99 +92.57 +258.48 +475-86 +781.18 +1161.93
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