Laserfiche WebLink
<br />terns characteristic of the hydrologic region <br />from the few events recorded annually at any <br />one gaged site in this arid climate. There- <br />fore the use of storms generated from region- <br />al data as being characteristic of and <br />equally likely to occur anywhere in the Price <br />River valley was judged superior to use of a <br />measured data sequence at a specific site. <br />Regional storm generation requires the <br />development of probability distributions for <br />principal storm pattern characteristics. <br />These probability distributions also provide <br />a potential for generating storm events of a <br />preselected frequency. <br /> <br />The five factors used in developing <br />these probability distributions were time of <br />year, probability of a storm occurring, <br />amount of precipitation, storm duration, and <br />precipitation distribution during the storm. <br />Time-of-year variability was handled by <br />developing separate distributions for the <br />other four variables for each month (April <br />through Octoher) and combining consecutive <br />months with like distributions where pos- <br />sible. These four variables were specifi- <br />cally handled as follows: <br /> <br />tv <br />o <br />c.:;;J <br />~ <br /> <br />1. For each month, the number of days <br />having measurable precipitation was deter- <br />mined and plotted as shown for June in Figure <br />5.4. A line fit by the Gumbel distribution <br /> <br /> 1) <br /> 12 <br /> " <br /> 0 <br /> '" <br /> " 11 <br /> . <br /> " <br /> '" <br /> Po 10 <br /> ." <br /> u <br /> . <br /> " <br /> Po 9 <br /> . <br /> .-< <br /> '" R <br /> . <br /> " <br /> " <br /> . 7 <br /> . <br /> . <br /> " <br /> "' 6 <br /> " <br /> '" <br /> . <br /> "' 5 <br /> " <br /> " <br /> 0 , <br /> " <br /> " <br /> '" <br /> . ) <br />f ~ <br />'" <br />~ ~ 2 <br />0 <br />" <br />. <br />'" <br />~ 0 <br />z <br /> <br />is shown plotted through these points. <br />Regressions were run for the number of days <br />of precipitation in a given month on the <br />number of days in the preceding month, but <br />low correlations led to dropping the number <br />of rainy days in the preceding month as a <br />significant variable. <br /> <br />2. Also for each month. the depths of <br />precipitation on days with storms were <br />plotted as shown for May in Figure 5.5. A <br />.line f it with a log-normal distribution is <br />shown. <br /> <br />3. Since storID duration varies with <br />storID depth, the storms were divided into <br />five depth ranges and durations were sepa- <br />rately plotted by range as shown in Figure <br />5.6. <br /> <br />4. A characteristic storm hyetograph <br />shape was developed from recording precipita- <br />tion gages in the Price and nearby Green <br />River Basins with the results shown in Figure <br />5.7. Use of this shape neglects the pos- <br />sibility of more than one storm occurring in <br />the same day. <br /> <br />The plotted information for these four <br />distributions for the corresponding mohth <br />provided the data used in Subroutine RAiN to <br /> <br /> - /' <br /> / <br /> / <br />, I '/ <br /> / <br /> ~ <br /> / <br /> -+ <br /> '/ <br /> '/ <br /> I/i <br /> V I I <br /> i <br /> / i <br /> ./ <br /> / <br /> / <br /> <br />.1 <br /> <br />5 <br /> <br />20 <br /> <br />60 <br /> <br />PROBABILITY (percent) <br /> <br />90 <br /> <br />95 <br /> <br />98 <br /> <br />99 <br /> <br /> <br />Figure 5.4. Gumbel distribution of days with precipitation in June. Weather data were taken <br />from U. S. Weather Bureau station records in the Price and San Rafael River Basins. <br /> <br />49 <br />