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<br />, <br /> <br />0015iH <br /> <br />Shortage & Surplus Graphs: Figures 13 & 14 appear confusing but they are meant to <br />demonstrate a point. Unlike hydrology where you have relatively random events occurring, and <br />using a statistical average is more understood, the Lower Basin water use is significantly <br />affected by surplus, and shortage declarations, which are not random, and have predetermined <br />scheduled use values which the use will instantaneously 'Jump" to. <br /> <br />The effect on statistical analysis can be confusing and the use of "average" may not <br />appropriately address the concerns of those affected. As shown in Figure 14, in year 2038, <br />CAP's average delivery was only about 100,000 acre-feet below normal. However, that does not <br />address the concern that should the shortage have occurred, Arizona's use would have been <br />instantaneously reduced by 400,000 acre-feet. While, the "average" delivery does not represent <br />a value you would likely find on any trace, when applied over 90 traces, as shown in Figure 15, <br />it still represents the "average" affect in comparing one operating concept with another. Future <br />concepts like off stream groundwater banking, could make the average more meaningful as <br />surplus water could be stored, and shortage deliveries offset by use of the banked water. <br /> <br />Each year of each trace output in the Appendix IV has an alphabetical code indicating what type <br />of surplus or shortage for that year was determined. The occurrences codes can be checked <br />where b=surplus by strategy, c=flood release. <br /> <br />19 <br />