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<br />Oftl. h5I <br />U ;) .., <br /> <br />Upper Reservoir contents <br />Powell and Mead inflow <br />Powell and Mead contents <br />Powell and Mead evaporation <br />Powell and Mead releases <br />Powell and Mead elevation <br />SNWS, MWD, CAP, and OTHER lower basin uses <br />Total lower basin use <br />Total lower basin shortage <br />Mexican delivery <br />Glen and Hoover energy <br /> <br />The output values are generally the total volume for the year in KAF. The reservoir contents and <br />elevations are end of year values. Energy values are in GWH. <br /> <br />F. GRAPHING THE OUTPUT DATA <br /> <br />As shown in Figure 5, which is only 10 runs, the resulting output data (in this case Lake Mead <br />elevation) can become difficult to understand if each trace of output is plotted. If 90 traces were <br />plotted, (or 1000 stochastic traces) the lines and points would become a blur. To manage the <br />analysis, averages and probabilities are determined and plotted. The average is a concise way to <br />show the most likely future value for continuous parameters such as releases or elevations.' As <br />shown in Figure 7, by converting the mass of points shown in Figure 5 to the average of the 10 <br />traces, a trend is observed showing, on average, that a gradual drop in the elevation of Lake <br />Mead resulted when the system was operated over the 10 traces. When applied to a 90-trace <br />analysis, shown in Figure 8 and Figure 9, the trend of the average becomes more stable and <br />comparisons between the effects of different operating criteria become more clear. <br /> <br />11 <br />