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<br />00' 51:,''1 <br />'.1 d.j <br /> <br />Future Use Projections: When a normal, surplus, or shortage is determined by the model, the <br />model refers to the use schedules found in Appendix 2, graphed in Figure 6. For more detail see <br />Appendix I. The upper basin use schedule consists of their desired use for each future year <br />assuming hydrology sufficient to meet these needs. As the model runs and runoff is found <br />insufficient to meet the upper basin schedule, then it is reduced and the shortage printed. Lower <br />basin use schedules include normal and surplus condition deliveries. Upon determination of a <br />surplus or a shortage in the lower basin the model sets the delivery to the desired amount. <br /> <br />Operating Criteria: The operating criterion consists of the reservoir capacities, equalization <br />criteria, and surplus/shortage strategies. These criteria provide the basis of the computer <br />calculations and decision making and are set by the user interface. The settings used for this <br />example are shown in Appendix 3. <br /> <br />D.RUNNING THE MODEL. (An example) <br /> <br />To make a multi-trace model run, the user could select the following: <br /> <br />Run period and hydrology sequencing: 54 years, 10 traces step 9 years. <br />Shortage strategy: 80% protection of elevation 1050 ft. <br />Surplus strategy: 70% spill avoidance. <br />Starting reservoir contents: From 24 month study, projection for Jan 1, 1997. <br /> <br />With 90 historical runoff years available, a run normally consists of 90 traces, 54 years in length <br />(199 _to 2050), and the hydrology beginning in 1906, and stepped 1 year after each trace. <br />Attached in the appendix is a simple example we can more easily inspect of a 10 trace run, each <br />trace is 54 years in length, with the hydrology starting at steps of9 years (1906,.., 1915...., <br />1924....etc.). <br /> <br />E. MODEL OUTPUT. <br /> <br />The model output attached in the appendix consists of3 types. Traces, average of the traces, and <br />occurrences in each year. As the model runs each year simulated is printed and as each run <br />reaches the ending year of simulation, that trace is terminated and a new trace begins. After the <br />last trace is run, each parameter is averaged by year and the averages are printed, Also, after the <br />last trace is run, the occurrences for selected events are summed and printed as sum of <br />occurrences in each year or as probability (occurrences divided by the number possible). <br /> <br />Model Outputs: The model parameters that are output are: <br /> <br />Year simulated and hydrology year used <br />Natural runoff above Powell (input) <br />Upper Basin use <br />Upper Basin shortage <br /> <br />10 <br />