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<br />With regard to projections of the foreign market beyond 1980,
<br />Dr. Upchurch indicated that in his judgment the best approach ,,,as to
<br />base such projections upon a reasonable set of assumptions growing
<br />out of emerging trends and the benchmarks these reveal for the period
<br />ahead. Such a set of assumptions might include the follOl,ing: (1)
<br />Our national policy will continue to stress self-help requirements
<br />in less-developed countries; (2) this policy, as well as many others,
<br />will result in significant increases in food production in these
<br />countries; (3) the rate of growth in world population will decline
<br />and may approach compe ti tioll for agricul tural produc ts entering
<br />foreign trade channels; and (4) foreign governments will limit the
<br />extent to which they permit themselves to be dependent on U. S. food.
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<br />For'these reasons the current set of preliminary projections for
<br />2000 and 2020 export levels are held unchanged from the 1980 level.
<br />This is the set of national projections from which base projections
<br />for the Missouri Basin study were derived.
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<br />Dr. Upchurch told the Committee that the U. S. production of
<br />agricultural products for the export market will increase at least
<br />until 1980. However, we cannot plan for an unlimited concessional
<br />market if we are to face the political and economic realities of
<br />world trade. One of the chief problems is how to convert the needs
<br />of hungry people to effective economic demand for commodities.
<br />Americ.an farmers like to produce and they can produce much more than
<br />they are now doing, but they must also make money at it. The food
<br />importing nations must be able to buy at commercial prices or the
<br />developed world must be prepared to provide the funds needed to
<br />channel food from American farms to consumers abroad. The problem
<br />of achieving "freedom from hunger" either here or abroad is not one
<br />of limited physical capacity, it is a problem of removing economic
<br />inhibitions to production of trade within and among nations. '
<br />
<br />Business Session
<br />
<br />Mr. Cocks reported that good progress was being rn3de on the
<br />comprehensive study. He indicated that Work Group V might need
<br />more time to com?lete their work than had been previously anticipated.
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<br />Mr, Conaway, Secretary of the Committee, expressed the Committee's
<br />appreciation to Mr. Cocks "ho had completed reindexing the minutes of
<br />149 meetings of the Committee. He then advised that the next meeting
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<br />13
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