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<br />('I";. <br />-' <br />r:.o <br /> <br />'- <br /> <br />forecasts for March 1,1990, produced by the SCS, were used as stream inflows in the model. <br /> <br /> <br />Table 12 shows the SCS runoff forecasts by month. These runoff values are approximately 40 <br /> <br /> <br />percent of the values expected in an average year. The average monthly net crop consumptive <br /> <br /> <br />use for dry year conditions was used to compute at.reservoir crop demands. The analysis <br /> <br /> <br />included the assumptions that no annual carry-over storage would be available for use in 1990 <br /> <br /> <br />and that the soil moisture profile was in a mostly depleted state because of dry fall conditions in <br /> <br />1989. <br /> <br />Table 13 shows a summary of the surplus/shortage condition for the 1990 season using <br /> <br /> <br />forecasted stream/lows from the SCS. Table 14 shows a summary 0/ the end-of-month <br /> <br />reservoir contents for Cone and Gurley Reservoirs for this scenario. Results of the analysis <br /> <br /> <br />indicate that serious shortages will occur during the 1990 irrigation season if all land presently <br /> <br /> <br />irrigated is kept in production. One possible approach to deal with the impacts of a water short <br /> <br /> <br />season would be to prOVide a full water supply to all of the land for a portion of the season. <br /> <br /> <br />Examination of the results shown in Table 13 indicate the water supply would be largely <br /> <br /> <br />exhausted by the end of June if this strategy is employed. Another possible approach to deal <br /> <br /> <br />with the impacts of a water short season would be to reduce the acreage being irrigated to <br /> <br /> <br />between 20 percent and 30 percent of that irrigated in the past so that a full supply could be <br /> <br /> <br />provided to that land over the entire season. These guidelines were determined through <br /> <br /> <br />iterative application of the model for varying percentages of land irrigated. A third possible <br /> <br /> <br />approach would be for individuals to purchase water from other shareholders in the ditch <br /> <br />company to obtain an increased water supply for the water short season. <br /> <br />11 <br />