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PRELIMINARY DRAFf - SUBJECT TO CHANGE - 05/13/99 reservations and the potential use of water is only about 15 acre-feet per year on the Ute Mountain Ute Indian Reservation and about 10 acre-feet per year on the Southern Ute Indian Reservation. G. REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY SCENARIO When the Animas - La Plata Project is complete the San Juan River Basin can be considered essentially fully appropriated. However, just as the entire West is growing, the San Juan Basin is experiencing its own population growth. This growth will increase the demand for water, both for household use and for the commercial, industrial, recreational and community infrastructure needs that accompany population growth. Until the tribes develop their own needs for their water, they may wish to lease some of their water to satisJy this regional demand. Table 2 shows how population in the 3 county area (La Plata and Montezuma Counties, CO, and San Juan County, NM) has changed between 1970 and 1998. La Plata Country population has doubled in that time, and the population of Montezuma and San Juan Counties has nearly doubled. Growth was not uniform, however, with all three counties showing at least one year of population declines. Table 3 shows how Colorado and New Mexico agencies expect the population of the three counties to continue growing. The agency projections extend to 2025 in Colorado and 2030 in New Mexico. Projections beyond those years are based on the average annual change in population between 1995 and the last agency projection. Although population projections over many years are usually not terribly reliable, these projections illustrate how the regional population could grow dramatically if the expected trends actually materialize. A growing population would increase the demand for public water supplies. Table 4 shows how the regional water use would grow, assuming the population growth in Table 3 and the 1995 national average water use of 179 gallons per capita per day (gpcd). By comparison, in 1995 Farmington, the largest city in the region, used 274 gpcd, while self- supplied rural households in San Juan County used approximately 70 gpcd [W'Ilson and Lucero, pp. 114-15]. The Southern Ute and Ute Mountain Ute Indian Tribes may decide that they would like to market some of their water to satisJy the growing regional demand. The tribes could do this in several ways. First, the tribes might decide to host some of the expected regional growth on their reservations. The industrial park discussed in Section C, above, is one example of how this might occur. Other examples might include vacation home sites, retail facilities or housing developments intended primarily for non-tribal members. These development might be,served directly from tribal water supply systems. 6