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<br />4026 <br /> <br />RUEDI DA1\:1 AND RESERVOIR, COLO. <br /> <br />79 <br /> <br />There arB ample reser\'es of oil shale. for several times theJwoduc- <br />tion rate of 1,2[)0,OOO barrels per day. In a study for the Corps of <br />Engineers (17), Ford~ Baeon, & Da.vis cite. a. figure of 5~nf,O:()(JO ba.r- <br />l'eIs pel' da,)' as a possible prcx:luct.ioll rute based on fi.\'fi.ila.ble re.,;erves <br />in Colorttclo alone. This level could be ma.int.njned for i}. minimum. of <br />40 years. Smaller rates of productioll would, of course, extend t.he <br />life. of the deposit. <br />There seems no likelihood tlmt the demand for shale oil, once <br />established, will diminish. Students of onr economy are unanimous <br />ill the belief that U.S. energy needs, including liquid fuels, will eon- <br />tmue to grow for the foreseeable future. AtomIC energy IS not fl, <br />c-ompetitor for most uses of petroleum. It se.ems reasonable to ex- <br />pect thnt shn.le oil production will c-ont.inue to inereflse as domestic <br />pet.roleum production declines until some ecollomic or physical1imit.a- <br />tion is re.aeheJ. Answering tlle a,.ailabilit.y of an ade<Iuate water <br />supply we foresee nothing to pre\'ent shale oil production re_aching <br />58\'e1'al million bn.rrels per day. <br /> <br />OIL SH:\LE INDUSTItY DE\'ELor-"\IENT r.\TI'ERN <br /> <br />It is belieYlxl that the development. of an oil ,hale industry will pro- <br />eeed in four distind phases. This pattern probably will be followed <br />regardless of when the indust.ry starts. Th",,"-, phases arB as follows: <br /> <br />Phase I. Experimental. <br />Phase II. Protot.ype. <br />Phase III. Primary Expansion. <br />Phase IV. Secondary Expansion. <br /> <br />PhaRO I. Experimental <br />The experiment.al pha..se sf,arteel about Hi yenrs a.go a.nd is now in <br />its final stages. During this period sntisfactal'Y methods for each <br />step in the production of shale fuels ha\"e been developed. Some <br />ndditionn.I experimental work is being done now, but the tel'hnology <br />essentia.lly is marking time. Lit.tle additiona.l experimentation is nec- <br />essary before building a protot.:ype commercia.} plant. <br />Ph"sc I might be termed t.he prepl"Ototype phase, which will COIl- <br />t,inue until the need fOor beginning commel'einl sha.le oil production <br />beeome,,; e\'ident. to oil eompa.IlY ma,llngemeIlt. <br /> <br />Pha8c II. Prototype <br />The prot.ot..ype plla...se inyoh'es building the tirst (:l)lI1lllerci,tl sea.Ie <br />pla.nt. (or plants). This might .lso be termed the pioneer phase. <br />Since t.he teclll101ogy to be used is new, many significant, improve- <br />ments a.re to ue expected f1S a result of this first, experience at. full-scale <br />pr<xluction. This also is t.he period of maximum technoloO"iea..1 risk... <br />The objective of t.he prot,ot.}pe phase is not. to produce lnl'ge qu:wtities <br />of oil. but. to firmly esh,hlish t.he tedmo1ol!}, and economics of shale <br />fuels l>l'odudion befOJ'c making" t.he la.rge'investment required for <br />shale oil to contribute si~"lificantly to ollr oil supply, <br />To kee-p the investment for ,i1")Jw.se II to a. minimum, Ute product <br />of t.he first plant(s) will be mal'keted insofar as possible by existing <br />t,ra.nsportation syst.ems, (Uufort.una.tely, the local maTket. Cllnnot <br />absorb the output. of even t.he sma]]est. prototype Vhnt.) Stmlies <br />have shown that 2[1,000 barrels per dRY of sllille oil can be fairly <br /> <br />, <br />.~ <br />~ <br />