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<br />. <br /> <br />If <br /> <br />\ <br /> <br />, <br />, <br /> <br />A <br />. {~: .,J- <br /> <br />RUEDI DAl-I A1\D RESERVOIR, COLO. <br /> <br />75 <br /> <br />, on;-, <br />if . . , <br />f.... <br /> <br />It. is the conclusion of the expelis that petroleum demand ill the <br />United States will cont.inue to increa...c;e for t.he next 15 to 20 years. <br />The rate of increase will be slight.ly less than that. of t.he past, 10 yom"S, <br />but. will rerwh " le\'el of 16 million bart"e.!s per day in 1Vi5. Domestic <br />petroleum demallfl in 1058 was 9,:313,000 ba.rrels per dn,y (38). <br />Petroleum pl'oduct.ioll in t.he United St.a,tes has SIIO\\"ll a steady in- <br />erease, but. has uot, kept. pace with demand. It. is predictBd t.h:Lt. pro- <br />duction will continue to increase until the period IIJ65 to uno, then <br />begin a gradual decline. The ren.son fol' this decline will not neces- <br />sarily be that the illdllstl"j' ca.WlOt filld m()re "jl, bllt. t.lmt the cost, of <br />alternate sourcBs, such as shale. oil, will be less than the cost of finding <br />lle,w and repla.cBInent. petrolewn. <br />The ..gap between demand and product.ioll since 1948 has been filled <br />by imp'H"ts, and this pract.ice probably ellll be followed tlu'ough 1065 <br />without our becoming overly depende.nt Oil overSe.n. oil. However, <br />\yhen production levels ofl', the.n begins to dec.linel the deficit bet.ween <br />pr"oducLion and derna.nd will increa.se at llwz'e t hall twice the present <br />rate, reaching a.bout j million barrels per (t"ty by 1!)j5. <br />It. seems re.as()nabIB t.!utt, shale ()il produet.i()n to supply a palt, of <br />t.his large deficit will begin bet.wee.1l 1HG[l and HHO. A piOlwer pro. <br />duction unit to esta.blish the teehnology 011 n. cOl1lmercial basis prob- <br />ubly will be built prior to t.his time. AS8uming:.t logical pattern of <br />rlevelopment for the shale inuustry. unatfected uy war or other emer- <br />~eneies. shale oil pr{Xiuct.ion should reach about 1,2;30,000 barrels per <br />day by )[li5. <br />IXFOHJI,L\TIO~~ ox OIL SH.\LE <br /> <br />Oil8hale'l'c8t!l'ves <br />Shale oil has long been looked upon in t.he United States a.nd else- <br />whe.re as the logicul supplement to petroleum. Oil sha.le reserves are <br />large ant! widely distI1but.et!. The sl"tle oil potential of the United <br />States exceeds d,e eombincd petroleum reselTElS of the Middle East <br />and Venezllela. a.nd is many times greater t.han t.he rnost optimistic. pre- <br />diction 'Of ult.imate petroleum di",overies in th" United States. With- <br />out question, shale oil, when lloodBd, ean contribute significantly to <br />our energy supply. <br />Svenska. Skifferolje A.B., the Sw"dish shale oil COIll!,any, has <br />roughly estimated t.he world's ()il ,,,scnes in shale (18). Ta ole i gives <br />their estimates by country in which oil shale is known to occur. <br /> <br />:f,~ <br />l" <br /> <br />t,. <br />