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<br />4020 <br /> <br />RUEDr DAM AKD RESERVOIR, COLO. <br /> <br />73 <br /> <br />Investment <br />The invest.ment in Illilles~ retorting plants, l'e.til~eries an\l pipe.lines <br />~-,hrough ~r)7.5 will exceec~ ~g billion. This magl~ltnde of lI1\'estme~t <br />IS "Well wIthIn the capnbllltles of the petroleum llldllstry. ~~l addl- <br />t.iona..l in"\'s.st,mellt of undetermined magnitude will be made 111 .1lOUS- <br />ing, sen-1ce facilities and other im~I'l)\'emellts. These expenditures <br />ma.,Y exceed that. for production facilIties. <br /> <br />CU?l'ent statu8 of U.8. oil shale <br />During the past 15 'years~ Gm"el'Jll1lent and industry haye spent per- <br />haps $GU million on rese.arch, land acquisition, and ot.her activities <br />prepa.rat,ol'}' to sta.rting a sha.le industry. Efficient, economic proc- <br />esses ItOW a.re available for enell phase in the production and refining <br />of shale oil. Shale produc.ts can be manufactured which are equi- <br />yale.nt in e\'ery way to those from petroleum. <br />Pre':"Je:nt\y, shn.\e oil awa.its fi mn.rket. Both U.S. a,nd ioreign pe- <br />trolemn-producing areas ha..\"f:' eXtt>::.>s capaci~.y, This oil can be uo- <br />tained at Jittle or no additional in\'cstment. Shale oi]~ tec.hnologica.lly <br />and economically, is ready for de\'elupment when domestic fields are. <br />being produced at ma.xilllum prflctical rates and there is protect.ion <br />frOJlll'Olllpetitioll by imported oil. <br /> <br />"",\TEn HEQl'lHEl\IE::-JT~ Fon SII.\LE, 1!)I;O-7,j <br /> <br />The Ol'st, step in this study was to attempt. to establish the ,late <br />whe.n eomme,rcia.l sha.le. oil Pl'oduc.tion win st<.llt. This was done by <br />a, st.udy of recent petroleum supply and demand forecasts by eXIJerts <br />in this lield. <br />Next, n. pattern of industry growth was worked out taking into ac- <br />count t.he present status of the technology, the fOl'eca~ted gap between <br />domest,ic production and demand for OIl, the compa.rative econom.ics <br />of slud1:3 oil a.nd pet.l"olenm, the remoteness and industrial underdevel- <br />opment of the 011 shale areas~ and other fa.dors. Engineering est,i- <br />nmtes of water requirements both for municipal and industrial use <br />were made for ea.ch invest.ment of shale oil produet.ion. <br />The result is a nrst. approximM.1C)l\ of .\. th:fI1;~ sl:.h~{\u\e for water <br />supply pla.JUling for oi I shale. This st.udy will require. periodic 1"6- <br />view. Once commercial shale oil production begins a.nd a-s new tech- <br />nologyeIJ1e.rges it is likely t.hat revisions will. be necc.ssnry. <br /> <br />ESTIMATE OF PETROLED~I SUPPLY AND DEMAND THROUGH 1975 <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />Fut.ure.l'etroleum ,leman,\ and avai\ability is a subject of eontin- <br />uing st.udy by oil_ company economists, Government agencies, and <br />ot;hers (5), (11), (13), (14), (25) (26), (48).' Currently, several <br />et.tinmtes llre published each year by experts in this lield. From a <br />6'.:'sc'udy of the most recent, estimates, and consulation with the authors, <br />.'we ha.ve derived a. consensus prediction of petroleum demand awl do- <br />mestic petroleum prodllctioll t.hrough the year 1iJ(!j. Our demand <br />and production estinf.e is presented in figure 1. <br /> <br />1 :-':llWtoHI' In l,nr{'nth..~I''' r~fN to blbl,1grllphy at ('nd or flPP. D, pp 81-89, <br />~. 523::11-60-6 <br /> <br />!'.""~'f.u; <br />~..,~~- <br />1t;? .: <br />