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4016 68 RUEDl DAM AND RESERVOIR, COLO. From consid~ra.tions of the U.S. petroleum sllpply and demand and t.he unquestioned status of oil shale (IS our most fea.sible domestic petro. leum supplement, we conelude that commercial shale oil production may begin during the period 1960-65. From an initial produetion of about 25,000 barrels per day, shale Oil output should lIlerease to 1,250,- 000 barrels daily by 1975. The industry should continue its expansion beyond this perIOd. We reeommend plalming a ,moor-supply enpability for shale oil production and its related municipal nnd industri..l development cor- responding to the following schedllle: [~cre-te~t per year] 19AO______________.____________ 2.000 \1970_________________________ 40,000 1965___________________________ 5,000 1975______________.__________ 250,000 Although we believe these figures to be as reliable as possible today, it should be recognized that new technological developments in sh\\le oil procluction and utilization are to he expeeted. Further- more, the industry eould develop more rapidly if aCcess to foreign oil were adversely ntfeeted or less rapidly if Federal rest.rictions on oil importation are rel:1xed. Changes in the tnx status of the petroleum industry also c.011hl ~trongly influenee the nttractiveneFi5 of shale oil. In yiow of the several factors which could change basic assumptions uf this study, periodic reviews of t.he shnle water situation until the indus- try development pattern is firmly established are suggested. We wish to nelmowledge the cooperation and advice of Director F. L. Sparks, of Shale Wnter Committee, Chairman .VilIiam H. Nelson, and members of the committee. 'Ve especially wish to extend a.ppreciation to the oil compnny oRic.ials who gave us the benefit of their viewpoillts on va.rious palts of the study. Respectfully submitted. RUSSELLJ. CAMERON, President.