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<br />43 <br /> <br />945 parameters to be monitored as indicators of change in the system (Korman et aI., 1998). <br />946 Assembling and synthesizing information is critical to the development and refmement of <br />947 the conceptual model, as well as to identifying key parameters to be incorporated into <br />948 GCMRC long-term monitoring programs and related research activities. <br />949 Conceptual Model Purpose <br />950 The purpose of the conceptual model is to: <br />951 . guide monitoring and research planning, <br />952 . clearly define critical attributes and linkages within and between physical, <br />953 biological and socio-cultural resources, <br />954 . promote improved understanding of ecological stressors that drive changes in the <br />955 system, <br />956 . make qualitative assessments of resource change resulting from alternative dam <br />957 opemtions,and <br />958 . provide information to stakeholders and managers regarding the potential impacts <br />959 of alternative dam operations on Lake Powell and the Colorado River ecosystem <br />960 and associated resources. <br />961 The conceptual model was developed to address the specific management objectives <br />962 and information needs articulated by the AMWG. Based on the known or suspected cause- <br />963 and-effect relationships that are identified during the development and testing of the <br />964 conceptual model, critical parameters to be monitored will be identified. <br />965 Good models are simplifications of the ecosystem being studied. They contain oniy <br />966 the level of complexity needed to describe the behavior being modeled. As such, they are <br />967 often incomplete representations of the ecosystem under study. Their strength-the ability to <br />968 organize complicated relationships into an understandable framework of study-is also their <br />969 weaknesses. That is, predictions resulting from the model will be associated with a degree of <br />970 uncertainty and will therefore always require validation through testing. The process of <br />971 building a conceptual model of the Colorado River ecosystem will result in an explicit <br />972 statement of assumptions held by individual scientists regarding the important elements of <br /> <br />November S, 1998 <br />SecoDd Draft - Do Not Cite, Pbotocopy. or DistrIbute <br />