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573 574 575 576 577 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 24 According to Lee (1993), "An adaptive policy is one that is designed from the outset to test clearly formulated hypotheses about the behavior of an ecosystem being changed by human use. In most cases, these hypotheses are predictions about how one or more important species will respond to management actions." An adaptive design is required because of the uncertainty regarding the effects of the proposed management actions. Learning in the face of such uncertainty can be best accomplished by implementing a management action as an experiment. Subsequent management actions can be adjusted in response to the knowledge gained from the previous management action. In most instances, a research program coupled with the monitoring program, is required to discern the nature of the cause and effect relationships indicated by the monitoring program. Lee (1993) points out that, "Reliable knowledge comes from two procedures: controls and replication. Replication is essential because if knowledge is reliable it can be shown to work more than once; real relationships between cause and effect will show up consistently." What is unique about an adaptive management approach to decision making is not simply the existence of a feedback loop between the management action and outcome, but rather the embracing of uncertainty and the use of an explicit monitoring and experimental design that has appropriate controls and statistical power required to test hypotheses: that is, to determine if a management action does in fact have the desired (predicted) effect. TIlE ROLE OF GCMRC IN ADAPTIVE MAlllAGEMENT ,:J.,V'<< (;\,\;0' The GCMRC was established, consistent with thcrGCDEIS to conduct objective scientifically rigorous investigations in response to ~ management objectives and p~'ll~ prioritized information needs. The scientific method is a powerful tool for learning about natural processes, for prioritizing outcomes of management actions associated with uncertainty and risk, and for recognizing significant outcomes from unexpected responses. The scientific method will be used to provide critical information to managers and stakeholders in the AMWG, so they can better define management, protection, and use November S, 1998 SecoDd Draft - Do Not Cite, Pbotocopy, or Distribute