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<br />related to water conservation measures and operating practices in <br />the diversion, delivery, distribution and use of Colorado River <br />water. In addition, the Regional Director is to make annual <br />determinations of each contractor's estimated water requirements <br />for the ensuing calendar year to the end that deliveries will not <br />exceed those reasonably required for beneficial use. Likewise, the <br />Commissioner of Indian Affairs is to engage in consultations with <br />various tribes and other water users on Indian reservations similar <br />to those engaged in by the Regional Director. It is therefore <br />appropriate for the Regional Directors of the Bureau of Reclamation <br />and the Commissioner of Indian Affairs to consider the required <br />water conservation plans, their objectives, and their time <br />schedules, to ensure that deliveries will not exceed those <br />reasonably required for beneficial use in the Upper and Lower <br />Division states. <br /> <br />F. Maximum Certaintv Versus Optimal Use in the United states <br /> <br />To the extent that the procedure for determining a "surplus" <br />rests on the reservoirs encroaching on flood control space, the <br />certainty of supplying each state's basic apportionment is <br />maximized but the basinwide beneficial uses from the river system <br />are minimized. To the other extreme, to the extent that the <br />procedure for determining a "surplus" rests on the reservoirs <br />approaching dead storage, the certainty of supplying each state's <br />basic apportionment is minimized, but the basinwide beneficial <br />water uses from the river system are maximized. In between these <br />two extremes, lies a balance in which the certainty of each state's <br />basic apportionment continues to be protected and the basinwide <br />beneficial uses from the river in the United states are optimized. <br />This maximum certainty versus optimal use conflict is at the heart <br />of the current discussion among the Basin states. The primary <br />issue being a perceived risk in the future to the certainty of each <br />state's basic apportionment versus restriction of a current <br />beneficial use. <br /> <br />To date, specific parameters have not been established for <br />determining a surplus or shortage condition (e.g. the probability <br />of shortages to mainstream water users in Arizona and Nevada or to <br />the Upper Basin states). Because California's use, and <br />specifically Metropolitan's use, can be restricted by a Secretarial <br />determination, it is imperative that these determinations have a <br />sound technical basis and that there is a balancing of the system <br />wide benefits and risks. Such an analysis must become a part of <br />the development of annual operating plans for the Colorado River <br />System reservoirs. <br /> <br />G. Water Pumped or Released from Lake Mead <br /> <br />Pursuant to the Operating Criteria, the Secretary of the <br />Interior annually shall determine the magnitude of reasonable <br />beneficial consumptive use requirements of mainstream users in the <br /> <br />7 <br />