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(.:;:J ..) ~ -.,1 o Q .- PREFACE Water in the Colorado River becomes inereasingly saline from the headwaters to downstream reaches. Upstream agrieultural and municipal water uses affect the quantity and salinity of water available to downstream users, and that quantity and salinity affects the value of the water for downstream users. In effect measures to reduce the salinity of upstream flows benefit those downstream by reducing salinity damages to agriculture and municipalities. The purpose of this study was to provide information on costs of implementing proposed upstream salinity eontrol measures on the Colorado River and on benefits of reduced damages to downstream water users, The study addressed a wide variety of economi~ effeets in order to make these estimates. Researchers were often faced with uncertain data, Some of the data used in the study has been changed by more recent findings even while the report has been in preparation and publication, Other quantities are still a legitimate matter of debate. As an example of the problems eneountered. "indirect costs" were suspeeted to be a significant component of total costs for remedial measures. At the same time, it was recognized that a definitive study of indireet costs would be outside the scope of time and effort provided by the project budget. Believing that it would be better to bring the subject into foeus rather than to ignore it altogether, Professor Howe was called upon to undertake this part of the study. It was fortunate that Professor Howe was able and willing to do it because he had already completed several studies of a elosely related nature covering the Colorado River Basin, His challenge was to adapt his previous studies and the analytical tools developed in them, along with results of relevant studies by others, to the specific questions of the salinity control remedial program. The principal investigators would like to eompliment him on an outstanding product, It must be pointed out, however, that his effort was under serious eonstraint by the fact that the details of salinity control remedial measures to be implemented in the upper basin were not known. It was therefore necessary to make certain assumptions concerning possible remedial measures and their costs, Furthermore, it seemed the purpose of the project would be best served by assuming sufficient precision in the svailable data in order to introduce s sequence of forward linkages into the analysis, Thus, it was possible to indicate the nature and relative magnitude of indirect costs in a more comprehensive way than would otherwise be possible, The reader is therefore cautioned to view the indirect cost estimates as no more than illustrative of the nature and magnitude of such costs. More definitive estimates would require 1) fuUy identified remedial measures and a quantitative understanding of their effeetiveness in redueing salt load, and 2) a very expensive and time consuming field data collection effort. The investigators feel that such a study should be made. but that it is unlikely that both the foregoing conditions ean be met, In the first plaee, remedial measures are being planned incrementally rather than as Isrger projeets, Uncertainties as to the effeetiveness of some of the proposed remedial measures will probably not be resolved until they are actually tried, It is equally unlikely that Congress or anyone else will provide the level of funding necessary to accomplish a fuUy rermed indirect cost assessment. It seems. therefore, that the indirect cost of the Colorado River Salinity Control Program will remain in the realm of rough estimation, and/or speculation, The assessment of this projeet is presented here wit.h the expectation that it will serve as a guide to decision-makers as the remedial program unfolds, The approximations provided should certainly be useful in tempering the judgment of planners and decision-makers, xxi L'