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<br />, <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />~.ri <br /> <br />Plan 2 fits present-day legal concepts most closely because <br />it honors the priority system and uses ground and surface water <br />conjunctively. Comparison of Plan 2 with Plan I will shaw the benefits <br />to be derived from conjunctive use. Comparison of Plan 2 with Plans 3 <br />and 4 may show that greater economic benefits can be derived if water <br />rights become subordinate to production capacity. <br /> <br />Analysis of complex plans such as these will be made using <br />digital computer programs, The analog model, which describes the <br />ground-water flaw and storage system and the time related effects on <br />the river of recharge and pumping, is used to provide input data for <br />the computer programs. These data are used to construct lines shawing <br />where the effects on the stream from recharge or pumping are equal in <br />the Arkansas Valley. <br /> <br />II <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />A computer program has been written to predict gains or <br />losses in streamflow between two diversion points. The program also <br />predicts changes in ground-water storage within the reach of the Valley <br />between diversion points for a period when pumping and recharge rates <br />are varied. Similar elements will be added to the program for the <br />reaches between each of the diversion points. <br /> <br />Historic data are being compiled to verify and calibrate the <br />computer flaw system. When the computer results reasonably simulate <br />observed changes in flow and storage, it will be capable of predicting <br />the availability of ground and surface water throughout the system for <br />any proposed water-management plan. <br /> <br />Concurrent with our development of this tool for predicting <br />availability of water, a group of specialists in our Washington office <br />is developing the programs for optimizing water-management plans. The <br />group, called the Systems Analysis Laboratory Unit, is skilled in <br />applying techniques to problems such as the ones outlined earlier. After <br />acquainting the Unit with the problems, they agreed that such plans were <br />feasible and have started work on the optimization program. <br /> <br />The techniques are equally applicable to water-management <br />problems in the Arkansas and South Platte Valleys. The technique is <br />being applied to the Arkansas Valley first because the problems there are <br />more critical and because our studies have reached the advanced stage of <br />development required for the application of the technique. Within a year, <br />studies on the South Platte should be complete enough to start application <br />of the technique. <br /> <br />We envision the results of our efforts and those of the Systems <br />Unit will set the pace for water-management studies in similar water <br />environments and will be of particular value to the water planners and <br />managers of Colorado. During development, and certainly upon completion <br />of these techniques, the results should suggest modifications of water <br />laws that would accommodate improved water-management practices. <br /> <br />2 <br />