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<br />Energ\ -...hnrtage \\arnln~"
<br />bpgan 10 rumblfO "('veral
<br />year... ilgo, but \\hen Iht'
<br />crunch .lclualk arrived, it
<br />iound tht, nation un-
<br />prepared. Sudden!, Amf>ri-
<br />("an e(onomic";' and IileSI,lt,,,
<br />mu<il put the bra\..e.. on
<br />wasteful enp(g\ con..ump-
<br />lion. Indu'-ln and tht> con-
<br />sumer mu<,1 not only \\ade
<br />through minor to major in-
<br />(onve-nit'nc{'.., they al<.(I ian-
<br />thrt'JIs oi unemplo,ment
<br />and warning.. oi a l:oming
<br />fp({.....ion.
<br />The problem would have
<br />bel'" bdd en()u~h under
<br />normal inlt'rnalional condi-
<br />tions, but th('n Ihe Arab..
<br />plavpd their trump c.ud and
<br />.111 oil embargo hit IIll' (oun-
<br />try. The resulting economic .....
<br />pinch stirred Ih(> Nixon ad-
<br />ministration 10 (all tor a nd-
<br />lional iull4iledgf'd thrust to
<br />reach energy o;eli.<,unici",nl\'
<br />bv lQaO. At Colon\', Hollis
<br />Dole says he doesn't belien'
<br />"it's absolulely m'ct:'ssary
<br />that WI:' become totall, ..elf-reliant." But he adds to thaI
<br />a widel\'.hl:'ld opinion: "I do think it is ne(('ssarv for us
<br />to be capable of producing a suliici('nl amount "'0 Ih.lt
<br />\\hen we deal with other rountrit's tor en erg\' reo
<br />sources, \ve deat <1<; hones I trading partnN" ralher lhan
<br />as supplicanls." And tht., position 01 "hone'>! trading
<br />partnN"" depends parlly on the production 01 shale
<br />oil, note many ent.'rg~- ,,('('ker...
<br />"Partly" i" a ke\ \\ord, lor both oil-shale critics and
<br />industry sources agree, and emphasize, lhat ..halp nil
<br />should not be glorified a.. the enf'rgy crisis curt'. It is a
<br />relativelv small part oj the solution lor even a million-
<br />barrel-pf'r-d,)\' indu...try ,viII ..upply only about 3 to 5
<br />pt'fCl'nt oi lhe nalion.s fotal oil nevd.... And it cannot bl:"
<br />gloriiit'd a... an immediate ..olulion. ,\\anv people, both
<br />inside and outside' 01 the industry, belieye that iull-
<br /><icale development cannot be reachf'd by 1985, a..
<br />prt'dicted bv lhe Inlprior Dppl.
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<br />Plor7h~'imer 01 Paraho
<br />pinpoinh lhe problem as
<br />one 01 con,otruclion. ..\1 least
<br />JO pl.1nl'> \,ill be nepderllo
<br />reach the Inlprior's goal, and
<br />it mighl I.lle j 10 -I ,pars 10
<br />ol'\'elop ('ach plan!. .'11 ma~'
<br />nOI be possible 10 have
<br />more than lwO or thrpe such
<br />plant... in lhe planning and
<br />conslruction stage at one
<br />limp," Plorzheim{'r sa\'s,
<br />'.bpcau..e there iUSl \\on't be
<br />enough cdpacity in lhe
<br />country in If'rm.. oi {'no
<br />gmeenng, Idbric.llion oi
<br />t'quipmt'nl, materidls. avail-
<br />ability oj manpower dnd so
<br />on.
<br />Even if Ihe million-barrel-
<br />per.da" goal is reJ.ched b\
<br />1')81, mam ,>our<.es point
<br />out Ihal ullimate shale-oil
<br />production ma\' nt'\'er be
<br />grt'dlt'r lh.1n 2 to 5 million
<br />barrel<, per d.l\'. Dnle again,
<br />Plorzheimer "ees conslruc-
<br />tion as the mo.-.t Iikel" re-
<br />slrain!. First, he pain Is out, it
<br />will take "lightly more fhan
<br />Iwo decade<, 10 build up fo a capacilY of 1.-1 million
<br />barrel.. pt'f day. mainlv be-cause oi con"lruction dif.
<br />flculties. Aiter Ihen, he s.1\'s, <,ome oi fhe new plants
<br />going up will mere I, be replacing some oi tht' firsl
<br />plan Is that \,ill be going oul oj produlIion. "You finally
<br />gel to a poinl:' h(' adds, "where "ou can't grow anv
<br />more bf'cdu<,e old plants are going out oi production as
<br />last .1.. nt'W ones are coming on stream:'
<br />'.01 course:' he conllnues, "fh(. country will ex-
<br />pand, iabricdtion capabililv will expand. engineering
<br />cap.lbilit~ \"ill expand, Bul by this point, maybe waler
<br />will be the limiting iaclor." In ide!. mosl oil-shale
<br />t'xpprts agrel' fhal water use Old" be the ullimdle limit
<br />on fhe size oj the industry, despite \'arious schemes 10
<br />pipe Wdlt'r in irom the nation's northwest. hen Ihe
<br />Interior Depl., .1 qrong oil-shale advocatE', ha.. pre-
<br />dictt'd Ihdt water U"l' will hold production at 3 to 5
<br />million barrels d dd\'.
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<br />30 r \fCUTIVI wrq Ilf:<.CH....t...R... (UITIO.... f.'bru~", 19~~
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