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<br />- ~ ,.. <br /> <br />O~31ja <br /> <br />8 <br /> <br />{ <br />I <br />'. <br /> <br />above the long-term mean for most of the ftrSl 35 years of settlement. The pueblo <br /> <br /> <br />reached its maximum size during this period and was apparently one of the largest <br /> <br />communities in the area. Precipitation became quite variable around 1335, popula- <br /> <br />tion began to decline and the pueblo was virtually abandoned by 1345. After about <br />40 years of near-abandonment, and coincident with another period of favorable <br />precipitation, a second phase of settlement began. A new town was built on the ru- <br />ins of the old and it reached maximum expansion in the early 1400's. Following a <br /> <br />disastrous fIre, the final occupation came to an end.. <br /> <br /> <br />Rose (Personal Corrununication, Martin Rose, fonner Graduate Assistant, <br /> <br />Laboratory of Tree -Ring Research, University of Arizona) has gready expanded <br /> <br />the Arroyo Hondo work with reconstructions of cJimatic variables based on a net- <br /> <br />work of tree-ring chronologies and climatic stations in Colorado and New Mexico. <br /> <br />( <br /> <br />Eighteen chronologies were used for reconstructions extending from A.D. 1650- <br /> <br />1970 and seven chronologies for the A.D. 900-16-!9 imerval. <br />Figure I, developed by Rose, shows variations in the July Palmer Drought <br /> <br />Severity Index (palmer. 1965) from A.D. [300-[960. The frequency with which <br /> <br />periods of moderate to severe droughts have occurred is of interest to <br /> <br />archaeologists, meteorologists and in water reSOUl1:e planning. <br /> <br />Based on a long chI-onology dating from A.D. 700-1930, Douglass (1935) <br /> <br /> <br />detennined that the drought of 1276-1299 was the most severe in the entire 1200 <br /> <br />years covered by the tree-ring record. He named this period "The Great Drought" a <br /> <br /> <br />term which has persisted through time. Although there is no unanimity of opinion, <br /> <br />many archaeologist believe that this period of severe sustained drought resulted in <br />the abandonment of large centers of pueblo culture such as Mesa Verde. <br /> <br />Because of controversies concerning such climatic imerpre-tations from <br /> <br />(:.. <br />\..: <br /> <br />tree-ring chI-onologies. Fritts er al.. (1965) did an in-depth study of climate-tree <br /> <br />growth relationships in the Mesa Verde area and made further climatic interpreta- <br />