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<br />OD3165 <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />CRAPrER I <br /> <br />SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS <br /> <br />toward more government service in various lines. To the extent that gov- <br />ernment employment is financed from nonlocal revenues, it has a similar <br />multiplier effect on the local economy as revenues from exporting indus- <br />tries such as agriculture and mining. <br /> <br />Population <br /> <br />Moderate population increases are anticipated in the San Juan Area. <br />This conclusion, reached from consideration of data in this report, is <br />supported by two recent independent studies of San Juan County, Utah. <br />A 1965 county population of 7,700 will increase to about 11,000 by year <br />2020 according to University of Utah projections.l/ The University's <br />statement follows. 'Unless mining and mineral production is rejuvenated, <br />much of the future growth will depend on tourism and outdoor recreation <br />developments . . . . An annual growth rate in the neighborhood of 1 per- <br />cent is probably not too unrealistic and population projections are made <br />on this basis." A study by Planning and Research Associates, Salt Lake <br />City, led to a somewhat higher forecast of a county population of 12,000 <br />by year 2000.~/ <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Population increases in the order of those mentioned appear to be <br />well supported by presently discernible or indicated resources and trends. <br />Unforeseen developments such as heavy mineral strikes, establishment of <br />government bases or industries, and the development of large recreation <br />enterprises or retirement centers--possible in this expansive and scenic <br />area--could result in much greater population increases. <br /> <br />1/ Theuel R. Black et al., Population Projections, Utah and Utah <br />Counties, December 1967. <br />2/ Population and Economic Base Study, San Juan County, utah <br />January 1968. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />10 <br />