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O[j~"'''e~ iJl;.Jf.. . CHAPrER I SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS decline further in the years ahead unless more inteneive types of farming develop. Mining Petroleum Crude petroleum production in San Juan County started in 1955 and reached a peak of 35 million barrels in 1959. It has since declined fairly evenly to 17 million barrels in 1965. The decline is a result of deple- tion of reserves and lessened exploration activity. The drilling fervor that followed important discoveries about a decade ago has subsided but conservative drilling programs are still underway. An orderly continuation of exploratory drilling appears to be assured because of the important discoveries already made and the large number of potential entrapment for- mations known to exist. . The extent of the petroleum discoveries and production that will re- sult from the exploratory drilling is, of course, unknown but is not ex- pected to be spectacular. Technological advances in automated drilling, production, and transport will limit the number of persons employed in the oil fields and along pipelines to a bare minimum. Thus the petroleum in- dustry is not expected to provide significant new employment or population increases. Uraniwn Uranium mln~ng became important in the study area about 1952 and reached a peak in 1959 when 1,367,000 tons of ore were mined. As the national supply of uranium concentrate grew out of proportion to limited uses of that period, both exploration and mining were curtailed. Mining in the area declined steadily to a production of 530,000 tons of ore in 1965. Federal permission for private ownership of nuclear materials for peaceful uses has stimulated demand for uranium and created renewed activ- ity in exploration and mining. Approximately 43,000 megawatts of nuclear electric generating capacity were either in operation or under construc- tion in the nation at the end of 1967. The Atomic Energy Commission es- timates that 120,000 to 170,000 megawatts will be operating in 1980, while some private forecasts place the figure at 200,000 megawatts. Op- eration of 170,000 megawatts of capacity would re~lire about 20 million tons of uranium ore annually. National production was only about 4,4 million tons in 1965. Known uranium ore reserves in the area are esti- mated at about 3 million tons, less than six times the 1965 production, . No doubt the near future will bring a rapidly increasing national demand for uranium. New exploration is already taking place in the study area and elsewhere. Naturally ores that can be mined and processed most economically will be the first developed. Just how extensive new dis- coveries will be in the San JualJ Area or how competitive new finds will 7