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<br /> Lake Lr]nie,~ Elevation <br />Ele.'l.~ti("ln <br />1075 <br />!OJ I\fll\ll~ ~.f\ I~ <br /> , <br /> I <br /> I 11 I A I <br /> I ,l ! \ <br /> "rllll r I" I ! I I I, , 11/\ <br />1065 , 1)1 ! I} <br /> 11.\1 \[i\ v{ 1,1, I II ~"I, 1\11" 1\' I, ~ I I fil, I 1/ I (I <br /> lit, I ~II jllj I, \11/"1 II )1 I <br /> ~ n ! \1 I <br />1060 J L ~ J I J l n J L ~ l ~ <br /> <br />1055 l- <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />, I <br /> <br />1050 <br /> <br />40 <br /> <br />50 <br /> <br />60 <br /> <br />Figure 1. Lake Lanier Elevation <br /> <br />the flow target. As you can see for two or three months <br />out of the entire record, you actually hit the lower flow <br />target. It is very difficult to institute a lower flow tar- <br />get, especially if you look at a drought. The tendency <br />is to say "all right, if that's the lower flow target, even <br />if it's conditional, I'm going to get there all the time." <br />In fact, the number of times you get there in an anal- <br />ysis like this is clearly very infrequently. So people can <br />look at the results of the uncertainty in operation that <br />is due to the hydrology and see this in time series. <br /> <br />It's important, when you do these kinds of simu- <br />lations, that you be specific, as specific as possible in <br />defining your objectives. Use forecasts if you can, just <br />like in real operations. If you do operations based on <br />perfeet foresight, you operate better than you actually <br />can and people tend to expect that you are going to <br />operate that we]L People have to understand the un- <br />certainty in dealing with forecasts as well. <br /> <br />Another important point when you look at these <br /> <br />8 <br /> <br />70 <br /> <br />80 <br /> <br />year <br /> <br />things is to expand the system. When you are looking <br />at what you can do with the system, you have to look <br />at the system as a whole, not just the part of it that <br />seems to be of interest at the time. There is an ex- <br />cellent example of this, I think locally, in the North <br />Platte. If you look at the North Platte, there is a suit <br />going on between Wyoming and Nebraska wherein <br />Wyoming seems to be looking to build another res- <br />ervoir site to have additional water for Casper. But in <br />fact, the storage for Casper already exists on the river <br />in a reservoir called Glendo. In fact, Wyoming is pro- <br />posing to spend some 60 million dollars t.o build <br />600,000 acre-feet of storage above Casper when some <br />350,000 acre-feet of storage cannot be used in Glendo <br />because of the language in the North Platte decree. <br />Now if you look so]ely at the water supply for Casper. <br />Casper needs storage. If you look at the system, the <br />storage is already there. <br /> <br />The fourth thing is that you have to listen to people <br />and you have to listen very carefully. People are very <br />