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<br />@ <br /> <br />o <br />CJ1 <br />w <br /><=> <br /> <br />-Jc. aM...,1Ot' U1.k~ L:.u..c .{ _I<",<'/.. .... 'l>"Lc~ <br />~l DEMANDS AND TOTAL GROSS OUTPUTS'-:: I ~ I <br /> <br />The UCRB Optimization Model requires exogenous estimates of final demand <br />11'1,0..1" jn/u I-l-c... _ <br />(YO) or total gross output (TGO) for each sect'or aSAmodel ;np"V These values <br /> <br />are in $1970 and are therefore economically consistent with the input-output <br /> <br />coefficients. The exogenous estimate, however, need not be for 1970, i.e., a <br /> <br />forecast of 2000 final demands can be incorporated into the model so long as <br /> <br />the measure of the 2000 physical final demands is ln 1970 dollars. <br /> <br />The results of a run of the model, given both the input estimates and the <br /> <br />input-output coefficients, are TGO or FD for those sectors which didn't <br /> <br />initially have the value specified, Basin income multipliers for each sector, <br /> <br />and the absolute level of Basin income. <br /> <br />These results are in $1970, but <br /> <br />reflect physical leve 19 of output and final demand for the year and scenario <br />, <br /> <br />assumptions embodied in the model inputs. <br /> <br />For example, the 1975 estimate of <br /> <br />final demand in 1970 dollars, when input into the model, yields 1975 TGO <br /> <br />estimates in 1970 dollars. <br /> <br />By using the ratio of prlce indices for each <br /> <br />sector in 1970 and 1978, the model also produces the TGO and FD measures input <br /> <br />into, and resulting from, the model run in 1978 dollars. <br /> <br />This additional <br /> <br />conversion is made in order to help the reader view the results in <br /> <br />contemporary terms. <br /> <br />Limitations of the Economic Characterization <br /> <br />The economic characterization which lies at the heart of the model; the <br /> <br />interregional, endogenized input-output coefficients; provides a highly disag- <br /> <br />gregated picture of the Basin economy. <br /> <br />It also provides projections of the <br /> <br />future long-run equilibrium of economic activities resulting from estimates of <br /> <br />al ternative levels of sector output or final demand and, in an optimization <br /> <br />context, measures the power of these changes to change UCRB income. <br />