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<br />resource acquisition process, but In other <br />resource planning functions as well. <br /> <br />Selection of Modeling Tools <br /> <br />It \.\as necessary initially to identify <br />the modelmg tools to be used and to select <br />appropriate models to develop or modify <br />for the proof-of-concept analysis As a <br />first step, a research and literature review <br />of softv..are tools, methodologies, and <br />modeling approaches was undertaken. <br /> <br />Several modeling approaches were <br />considered for evaluatmg replacement <br />power alternatives. These ranged from <br />production cost models, to capacity <br />expansion models based on linear or <br />dynamic programming. Use of a spread- <br />sheet to calculate levelized.-costs was also <br />considered as a simplified modeling <br />approach. The preferred modeling <br />approach identified for the replacement <br />resources acquisition process is use of a <br />spreadsheet model for resource screemng <br />and a production cost model for integrated <br />analysis. <br /> <br />The diversity of pricing structures <br />and other replacement resource charac- <br />teristics mIl make n difficult to determine <br />the lowest cost alternative through SImple <br />review. On the other hand, preparing a <br />detailed and tirne-consummg Integrated <br />analysis for all responses received would <br />be too tIme-consumins. <br /> <br />To lirrut the number of alternatives <br />evaluated In detall. a screening analysIs <br />was dcveloped that provides a straightfor- <br />\vard method to process the basic data. <br />represent each alternative On a consistent <br />basis, and create an economic ranking of <br />the alternatives based on the estimated <br />le\'elized per-unit cost at different capac- <br />ity factors. Based on the results of the <br />screerung analysis, Western can select the <br />altemati\.es to be evaluated In detail usmg <br /> <br />a fair and objective process. <br /> <br />The production cost model, <br />MULTlSYM, was selected for performing <br />the detailed integrated analYSIS of replace- <br />ment power alternatives primarily because <br />It offered the key features reqUIred for <br />modeling such an extensive geographic <br />area \\ith multiple interactIng systems. <br />The program is developed, marketed <br />commercially, and supponed by a third <br />pany, Henwood Energy Services, Inc. <br /> <br />The Colorado River Sunulation <br />System model was used to represent the <br />Colorado River System and dctemune the <br />monthly hydro-electric generation for the <br />Reclamation's hydroelectric generation <br />projects in MULTISY~L The pnncipal <br />data source used to construct the <br />MULTIS'fM model of all the other <br />electric utilities, loads and resources in <br />Western's marketing area was Resource <br />Data International, Inc. 1bis company was <br />selected primarily because it is both <br />comprehensive and readily available to <br />Western. <br /> <br />Model Implementation <br /> <br />A pOlential course of aCtIon could <br />have been to implement the models using <br />system data already existing from other <br />studies, supplemented \\ith "example" or <br />"representative" data The course of <br />action used for the proof--of-concept <br />analYSIS was actually a more comprehen- <br />sive approach to model implementation. <br />wluch involved identifymg data sources, <br />gathering most of the available data from <br />these sources, processing the data, and <br />then constructing a more comprehensl\'e <br />modeL Usmg comprehensi\'e, rather than <br />representati\.e, data in the current model <br />\\;11 prO\ide benefits as a future time-saver <br />when \Vestern begins to implement chosen <br />methods and potenually acqwre replace- <br />ment resources. <br /> <br />~ Using COffi!l'ehensive, <br />raltlerltlan representative, <br />data in ltleCtJrrentmodel <br />will provide benefits as a <br />fulllretime-saverwhen <br />Western begins to <br />im~emenlchosen <br />me1hodsand potentially <br />acquire re~acemenl <br />resources. <br /> <br />Ii <br />