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3443 A major social issue in the valley is the additional transfer of water from the valley. Residents of the area recognize the inherent right of water owners to sell these water rights to the highest bidder. On the other hand, people expect that additional water transfers seriously threaten their agricultural way of life and the quality of life in the valley. THE POTENTIAL SOCIAL IMPACfS OF ADDffiONAL WATER TRANSFERS A review of the literature revealed that very little work of a purely sociological nature has been done on the subject of water transfers. Our visits and interviews in the study area revealed that many of the social factors reported in the literature are present in the valley. The potential for transfer of the Fort Lyon Canal water already has produced some tension and anxiety. Weber reports (d, 26) that the depressed economic condition of Arkansas Valley farms makes the selling of water shares both necessary and desirable for many farmers. Other writers have touched upon the social conflicts that emerge from the economics of transfers. Shupe, et al. (1989, 428) found large transfers of water from rural to urban areas typically cause controversy in the area where the water rights originate. But Weber argues that "controversy' is too mild a term for describing local feelings and refers to times when farmers felt obliged to carry firearms with them as they went out to irrigate (Weber 1990b, 13). He points to the frustration, anxiety and tension which are present in those who chose not to sell. When such conflict between neighbors is present communities which took pride in their neighborliness, cooperation, and kinship ties become increasingly polarized (Weber 1990b, 14). Results of limited interviews in the valley, a recent sample survey (Fulton, et al. 1992), and the knowledge of the study team members indicate that many of these same concerns exist in the study area. These concerns already influence social interactions in a significant way and are therefore an important part of the sociological profile and forecast for the study area. WATER DEMAND There are no known current municipal requirements for additional water supply in the upper basin. At this time, no municipal growth demands in the study area are anticipated based on projections; however, augmentation of existing wells may be required. Additionally, local economic development officials have expressed a desire to develop an additional industrial base which may require new sources of high quality municipal water supplies. For estimating purposes, 5000 af C.U. may be set aside as an economic development pool to encourage growth. Table 2 presents a summary of possible maximum local demands and valuation estimates. By way of comparison, value of Fort Lyon water may be about $720/share or $600 af C.U., based upon recent sales data on farm transactions within the FLCC irrigated acreage.