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<br />8 <br /> <br />o <br />CJl <br />(,;;) <br />0+;>. <br /> <br />14,2(.029) + 9.8(,145) + 5(,102) + 0(.724) = 2.34 <br /> <br />We can compute the average amount that must be stored in the R season <br />per month as <br /> <br />12,86(2) + 2.34 = 28.06, <br /> <br />The W borrowing was multiplied by 2 because that season contains twice as <br />many months. There are only 3 possible amounts that can be stored in the <br />R season: 15,000 acre'~feet for low runoff, 30,000 acre-feet normally and <br />33,300 acre-feet when the reservoir had been drawn down to 20,000 acre-feet <br /> <br />due to low winter inflows. <br /> <br />The probability of a drawdown to 20,000 acre-feet on March 31 is <br /> <br />.029(,086 + .160) = ,007, <br /> <br />but the probability of refilling this extra 10,000 acre-foot drawdown must <br /> <br />be adjusted as <br /> <br />.007/.869 = ,008 <br /> <br />because this defid t is never made up from low R season inflows, Thus , <br />the expected amount stored in the R season is <br /> <br />15(.131) + 30(.861) + 33.3(.008) = 28.06 <br /> <br />as it should be. This balance is the check that all outcomes have been <br /> <br />considered. <br /> <br />The next step in the method is to compute the flow distributions on <br />each portion of the river, The complete flow distribution at Watson <br />resulting from this regulation is as follows. Details are omitted as the <br />calculations are just addition and subtraction; for instance, the last <br /> <br />five 5 season flows are 5-18 and the W flows are shown. <br />