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<br />Discussion <br /> <br />Stage A, including the key water management decisions discussed earlier, was <br />analyzed using the same hydrologic model that was used for the analysis of the <br />full Animas-La Plata Project. The period of record selected for the analysis <br />was 1935 to 1962. From this period, two wet, two dry, and two average years <br />were selected for analysis based upon water volumes during the spring runoff. <br />Wet years selected were 1938 and 1949, dry years were 1946 and 1951, average <br />years were 1936 and 1945. Figures 1-18 at the end of this appendix showing <br />the flow patterns at three locations resulting from the implementation of the <br />reasonable and prudent alternative. <br /> <br />1. Reoperated at Current (baseline) Level of Depletion <br /> <br />The first step in the analysis is to investigate the opportunities for <br />improving the flow pattern by reoperating Navajo Dam. The level of <br />depletions is identical to the Section 7 baseline (listed in Table 2) in <br />the Biological Opinion. Under this scenario, the minimum release below <br />Navajol)am for trout was reduced to 300 cfs and a 300,000 AF release for <br />endangered fish was made in May and June. Under this scenario, the <br />release for endangered fish was able to be made in 96 percent of the <br />years. <br /> <br />a. Magnitude of Peaks Compared to Historic <br /> <br />The level of depletion in the San Juan River Basin has increased <br />since the pre-Navajo Dam era and Navajo Dam is storing water during <br />the peak runoff; therefore, the peaks are lower than historic. <br />During wet years, for instance, the historic peaks in 1938 and 1949 <br />were 11,478 cfs and 12,566 cfs respectively. Under the current level <br />of depletion, Navajo Dam can be operated to achieve peaks of 9,317 <br />cfs and 10,460 cfs respectively. These peaks are comparable to the <br />1987 peak of 9,026 cfs (Figure 20). <br /> <br />During average years, the historic peaks in 1936 and 1945 were 6,905 <br />cfs and 7,419 cfs respectively. Under the current level of <br />depletion, Navajo Dam can be operated to achieve peaks of 6,905 cfs <br />and 7,419 cfs respectively. While comparable to the historic spring <br />peaks, these flows are significantly less than the 1987 spring peak. <br /> <br />In dry years, the spring peak can be enhanced significantly with <br />storage releases from Navajo Dam. Historic peaks in 1946 and 1951 <br />were 3,427 cfs and 3,169 cfs respectively. Under the current level <br />of depletion, Navajo Dam can be operated to achieve peaks of <br />4,552 cfs and 4,217 cfs respectively. These peaks are higher than <br />historic peaks for dry years and may represent an improvement to <br />habitats in dry years or could be spread out over a longer period. <br /> <br />b. Shape of Hydrograph (ascending/descending limbs) <br /> <br />During wet years, Navajo Dam is refilling, and the ascending limb of <br />the hydrograph falls short of historic flows (see figures). Since <br /> <br />10 <br />