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<br />u (') 1 i,.HI !, <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />PROORESS REPORT <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Variations in Stream Flovr in the Upper <br />Colorado River <br /> <br />This report covers the first fifteen months of the research project <br /> <br />from its beginning to October 1, 1960. <br /> <br />The project is divided into three <br /> <br />major divisions: 1) probability analysis of the historic flow of the river <br /> <br />using advanced statistical techniques, 2) an analysis of the historical <br /> <br />meteorologic record of the Upper Basin, and 3) the relation of precipitation <br /> <br />and stream flow to high atmospheric phenomena. <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />The statistical analysis of the historic stream flow record falls into <br /> <br />two parts. The first assumes that there is no time pattern to the river flows <br /> <br />at Lees Ferry, and that historic annyal flows will be repeated but not in the <br /> <br />same order in which they occurred historically. This part has been essentially <br /> <br />completed, but is subject to revision when this analysis can be related to the <br /> <br />complete history of precipitation records as recorded on the punch cards. <br /> <br />A preliminary conclusion of the probability analysis is that the known <br /> <br />record of run-off at Lees Ferry (and for the major tributaries) is best described <br /> <br />as following a normal, Gaussian curve. When the usual statistical tests are <br /> <br />applied to see if the differences between the normal curve and the actual data <br /> <br />are significant, the tests all indicate that the differences are NOT significant. <br /> <br />Thus, if we abstract from time and treat the river flows without a time dimension, <br /> <br />the flows are reasonably well approximated by the normal curve. <br /> <br />. <br />