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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />n -:'~ '" tIt,y -, '.V>.. <br />o ;...; .: J .: -'i > <br /> <br />food needs and the U.S. is expected to continue to be the major residual <br />supplier of world food needs. The population of developing countries is <br />projected to increase about 2.4 percent per year through the mid-1980's <br />while the popul ation of developed market oriented countries will increase <br />about .5 to .8 percent per year and centrally planned countries about 1.7 <br />percent per year. While the population of most developed market oriented <br />and centrally planned countries, except for China, will have almost stabi- <br />1 ized by year 2020, population of most of the developing countries will <br />continue growing, some for another 40 to 50 years. <br /> <br />Specifically, the export projections in the basel ine run of NIRAP were <br />developed in the following manner. The 1985 levels of exports were <br />designed to replicate the USDA official five year projections. In general, <br />the aggregate international demand for U. S. grains was projected to grow <br />from 1985 to 2000 by 3 percent per year, while the annual growth rate from <br />2000 to 2020 was estimated at 2.5 percent. These growth rates are consist- <br />ent with those projected by Martin E. Abel, Senior Vice President of <br />Schnittker Associates of Washington, D.C., in a paper for a national con- <br />ference sponsored by Resources for the Future, Inc. <br /> <br />The constant price level s of exports are the starting pOint in the <br />estimation of total U.S. export demands. It is not real istic that coun- <br />tries would ignore the price of commodities in determining the amount of <br />imports from the U.S.; that is. they would not be isolated from the price <br /> <br />11-26 <br />