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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />n_~,;,,; t4 <If f) <br />U'U.~.0 ",",(.,j <br /> <br />Exports <br /> <br />U.S. exports provide a demand for agricultural commodities and imports <br />are a supply. Because the u.s. "is a net exporter of agricultural commod- <br />ities, the amount of international trade (ignoring any price effect) is <br />contained in the Constant Price Demand component. (In the Commodity Pro- <br />duction and Utilization component, the respective price elasticities are <br />appl ied to imports and exports to determine the price impacts and the final <br />quanti ties. ) <br /> <br />The constant price estimates of imports and exports are modeled in two <br />optional manners. They can be determined by econometric equations or by <br />exogenous pOint estimates. Econometric estimates are generally based on <br />functional relationships of imports or exports to countries' gross national <br />product, per capita income, present population, population growth rates, <br />and other factors that may affect imports or exports. However, earlier <br />runs of NIRAP with econometrically determined exports were found to be <br />unsatisfactory. Major reasons for this problem are the lack of sufficient <br />data for developing countries and the inability to predict significant ran- <br />dom events in history (too many dummy variables in regression analysis.) <br />For this reason, exogenous pOint estimates were used to determine the con- <br />stant price amounts of exports inputted into the NIRAP model. Although <br />these exogenously determined estimates were developed in a subjective man- <br />ner, they were made taking into account a number of pertinent facts. <br /> <br />11-24 <br />