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I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I .' " "_: ~ "!o- fl,~! ~ r';11 V-.,J.,;..JU 0.056 percent. l! Research estimates also show that a 1 percent increase in the education index will increase productivity 0.78 percent. Given the above coefficient, and assuming that R&E increases 3 percent per year, agricul tural productivity will increase and the aggregate supply curve will shift to the right by 1.5 percent per year. This is equal to the compound growth rate occurring over the last 50 years. Crop Yi el ds Higher crop yields will perhaps be the most visible sign of productiv- ity increases. Yields will increase from greater use of the same technolo- gy that boosted yields in the last two to three decades--hybrid seed, more fertilizer, improved machines, narrower rows, higher plant populations per acre, chemical weed control, and continuous cropping of high yielding crops. The top 10 perrpnt of our farmers routinely achieve yields 50 to 80 percent greater than the average. And although all producers cannot reach levels of the highest 10 percent, there is considerable room for improve- ment by most farmers. For example, average U.S. corn yields under the basel ine are projected to increase from 101 bushel s per acre in 1978 to 157 1/ These coefficients have been adjusted upward by 50 percent over the ori- ginal coefficients reported by Lu, Cline, and Quance. This adjustment was made to reflect the increasing importance of private research and extension activities, the complementary relationships between modern technologies, and to permit the productivity model to more accurately simulate productivity growth during the 1970's. This adjustment was made by USDA personnel prior to involvement in the High Plains Study. II-13