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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />f\1',~ !:: 1;-3 <br />tf:) .-- ,) ,j <br /> <br />Today's farmer can produce enough food to feed more peop1 e than in the <br />past, not only because he is more efficient than his father but also <br />becauses he uses more chemical ferti1 izers and insecticides and better <br />machines than hi s father used. _ Because there are ways other than just <br />labor efficiency by which a farmer can increase production, all inputs <br />should be considered when measuring changes in productivity. Thus, produc- <br />tivity is measured by the official USDA total factor productivity index as <br />annually updated in Changes in Farm Production and Efficiency (Statistical <br />Handbook No. 628). <br /> <br />Historical Perspective <br /> <br />Productivity is a broader concept than technological change but tech- <br />nOlogical change is the primary long-range determinant of productivity <br />growth that society can influence through research, education, and exten- <br />sion programs. Can the phenomenal increase in agricultural productivity <br />since World War II continue? Figure II-3 illustrates the existence of the <br />classical S-shaped growth curve, with respect to agricultural productivity <br />growth. The last 200 years can be viewed as a series of four successive <br />growth curves characterized by their respective power source--human power, <br />horse power, mechanical power, and science power. Prior to the science <br />power epoch, the new power source tended to be a pure substitute for the <br />old power source. For example, when horse power had completely substituted <br />for hand powered agric ul tura1 impl ements, that source of productivity <br /> <br />11-10 <br />