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7 TABLE 1 Controllinsz Criteria Analvsis of Action and o Action Model Results Spring Peak Flow Recommendations Target Model Results for Reach 2 0/0 Action Action No (ALL-I) (ALL) Action Achieve Peak at Jensen >= 26,400 cfs 10% 11.4% 16.4% 5.0% Sustained Peak at Jensen >= 22,700 cfs 10% 10,8% 12.3% 4.1% for at least 2 weeks, Sustained Peak at Jensen >= 18,600 cfs 10% 9.5% 18.1 % 5.0% for at least 4 weeks, Achieve Peak at Jensen >= 20,300 cfs 30% 44,7% 57.7% 40.4% Sustain Peak at Jensen >= 18,600 cfs 40% 18.2% 43.1% 14.0% for at least 2 weeks. Achieve Peak at Jensen >= 18,600 cfs 50% 60.2% 66.0% 58.9% Achieve Peak at Jensen >= 8,300 cfs 100% 99.7% 99.7% 98.5% Sustain Peak at Jensen >= 8,300 cfs 90% 96,9% 96,9% 96.9% At least I week. Sustain Peak at Jensen >= 8,300 cfs 98% 97.3% 97.3% 97.3% at least 2 days except in extreme dry years. N Reservoir Water Surface Elevation Results For each month of the model run, from January 2002 to December 2040, there are 65 elevations that could potentially occur in any given month (one elevation for each trace), These monthly data sets have been sorted from lowest to highest. The 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile values have been selected from each set. Figure I shows the 90th percentile elevations that occurred for all three runs of the model for the finlt lO years of the model run. The results in Figure I do not represent anyone particular elevation trace. Rather, these curves can best be thought of as a boundary elevation that will be exceeded 10% of the time. To illustrate how individual traces fluctuate through time, trace 54, which achieved the 90% boundary elevation in July, 10 years into the model run, is included in the figure, The amplitude of the curves from year to year indicated how much water was being stored during the spring for release later in the year. The smaller the amplitude, the less storage that took place throughout the year and the less change in elevation that occurred from year to year, Both the Action(ALL) and the Action(ALL- I) model runs have smaller amplitudes than the No Action Alternative indicating less active storage and less elevation change during the year.