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.-, n .. () '-JIJ CONTENTS Abstract ........ ........ ................. ....... ........... ........ ........ ....... ...... ........... ....... .................. ..................... ........... .............. .............. I Introduction ...... ..... ......... ............. ........... ............ .... ...... ......... ......... .......... .................... ......... ..... ............... .......... ........... ...... I Purpose and scope ............. ....... .......... ...................... ...... .................... ....... .............. .................. ........... ............ .......... 3 Description of study area .... .......... ............ .... ............. ........... ....... ........ ............... ....... ......... ......... ................ ........ ...... 5 Repon tenninology ......... ...... ....... ......... ........... ........... ................... .................. .................. ............. ............ ......... ...... 5 Acknow ledgments .................... ............ ... .......... ............. ................. ........................ .... .............. ........... ............ .......... 5 Frequency analysis of historical daily mean discharges ...................................................................................................... 8 Log-Pearson type-ill distribution.. ........ ... ................... .......... ......... ............. ..... ............ ....... ............ ........... ................ 8 Skew-coefficient analysis ...... ..... ........... ... ........ ........... .............. ...... ... ........ .................. ............. .............. ........... ........ 9 Analysis for adequacy of record length ..................................................................................................................... 10 Adjustment and extension of discharge record .......................................................................................................... 21 Frequency analysis results ......... .................. ............... ....... ............. ................ .................. ......... ..... ........... ........... ..... 22 Perspective of daily mean discharges recorded during April and May 1942 ............................................................ 26 Application of frequency-analysis results to estimate evacuation dates for the joint-use pool........................................... 26 Forecasting inflow volume to Pueblo Reservoir using the extended streamflow prediction procedure .............................. 41 National Weather Service River Forecast System model .......................................................................................... 41 Extended streamflow prediction procedure ................................................................................................................ 42 Example forecasts using the extended streamflow prediction procedure .................................................................. 42 Summary . ..... ............ ............................... ........ ......... ................ ...... ................... .............. ....................... ..... ............ ............. 42 References .......... .... .......... .................................. ........... ......... ....................... .............. ................... ............ .................... ...... 45 FIGURES I. Map showing the Arkansas River basin upstream from Avondale ........................................................................... 2 2. Cross-section schematic of Pueblo Reservoir storage-capacity pools ...................................................................... 3 3-8. Graphs showing: 3. Recorded daily mean discharge for selected stations in the vicinity of Pueblo Reservoir............................. 6 4. Mean square error of station-skew coefficient as a function of station re-cord length for selected values of station-skew coefficient .................................................................................................... 10 5. Station-skew coefficients for logarithms of daily mean discharge during April and May for selected stations on the Arkansas River ......................................................................................................... 1 I 6. Station-skew coefficients for logarithms of daily mean discharge during April and May for selected stations downstream from Pueblo Reservoir.................................................................................... 12 7. April-May discharge volumes for water years 1890--1990 for selected stations on the Arkansas River................... ............ ............................ ................... ............. ................... .... ...... .............. .... ..... 13 8. Estimated April-May discharge volume at the 0.01 exceedance probability for selected stations on the Arkansas River ....................................................................................................................... 14 9-] I. Graphs showing log-Pearson type-III frequency curves of April-May discharge volume for: 9. Selected stations on the Arkansas River ........................................................................................................ 15 10. Fountain Creek and the SI. Charles River...................................................................................................... 20 II. Station 07099500 Arkansas River near Pueblo including estimated discharge for 1976-90 ........................ 23 12. Graph showing estimated daily mean discharge at the 0.0] exceedance probability and maximum recorded daily mean discharge for station 07099500 Arkansas River near Pueblo.................................................. 23 ] 3. Graphs showing estimated daily mean discharge at the 0.01 exceedance probability and maximum recorded daily mean discharge for Fountain Creek and the SI. Charles River ......................................................... 25 CONTENTS III