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I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 26 surplus of 4.5 maf Using these figures, Carpenter drafted a Colorado River Compact on a fifty-fifty basis, allocating 7.5 million acre-feet (mat) to each basin plus an extra 1 mafto the Lower Basin, because the ~ater in the Gila River (approximately 1 mat) had already been allocated. He concluded that the unreconstructed flow of the river passing Lee's Ferry was approximately 16 maf; the reconstructed flow was 12 maf (taking irrigation uses into account) and even in drought years when the flow dropped to 10 maf at Lee's Ferry, there would be enough water to meet Lower Basin needs.65 Carpenter had total confidence in Meeker, but as time passed, he began reworking Meeker's figures. Several months before the Santa Fe meeting he proposed a compact "based wholly upon the principle of the upper states guaranteeing to the territory below Lee's Ferry an average annual flow sufficient, when added to the average flow between Lee's Ferry and Yuma, to make a delivery of an amount equivalent to one-half of the average flow at Yuma computed from the twenty-year record at that point."66 The minimum flow Carpenter was willing to guarantee was now based on a mean average annual flow of 17.4 maf at Yuma. Because A. P. Davis had informed him that the Upper Basin produced on the average 86% of the water in the river,67 or 14.9 mafpassing Lee's Ferry (note that this amount has been lowered from previous estimates of 16 mat), Carpenter argued that if the Lower Basin was entitled to a 50% split in the river, the upper basin states would have to guarantee no more than 36% of the agreed average flow at Yuma, approximately 6.264 maf (36% x 17.4 mat).68 Article II of the draft compact which Carpenter sent to Hoover and the commissioners in the summer of 1922 was essentially unchanged when everyone gathered at Santa Fe in November. Paragraph 2 read in part