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<br />002:5L <br /> <br />INTRODUCTON <br /> <br />THE DOMINANT REASON for the existence of this model is to develop <br />an understanding of the earnings derived from irrigation in Kansas <br />agticulture. A complete understanding of the impact of irrigation would <br />involve tracing the path of agricultural products through the cntire food <br />chain to the final consumer. We will not undertake that analysis. This model <br />goes only as far as estimating gross returns to be expected from irrigation. As <br />an ancillary proposition the returns to dry land farming are calculated as well. <br />A sense of proportion is establishcd by making a comparison between the <br />two technologies. <br />The fundamental unit of measure for this analysis is production per acre. <br />This provides farm managers with the information to help make an assess- <br />ment of the profitability of irrigation for their specific scale operations. No <br />one can make these decisions for the managers. While we like to think of <br />our production activities as being uniform, in fact, they are not. Each farm- <br />ing operation has its unique problems which must be solved jf the operation <br />is to be successful. The manager is the only person familiar with his partic. <br />ular collecrion of problems. <br />The figures representing totals are the accumulative magnitudes of the <br />various facrors. These are the numbers which attracr rhe interest of govern. <br />ment. If they suggesr a developing problcm of sufficient breadth and imme. <br />diacy then attempts to head off a crisis will result. If there is general agree. <br />ment that a problem exists, this model can be used to quantify some of the <br />effects of suggested solutions. For example, a variation in water application <br />rates of SOllle arbitrary amount could be entered into the model to make an <br />estimate of the change in revenues. <br />As annual data becomes available, it ean be organized and put into the <br />model for analysis. This will eventually result in time series data which can <br />be useful for explaining rrends in Kansas agriculture. With sufficient infor. <br />mation we might even be able to anticipate the onset of adverse economic <br />conditions. <br /> <br />9 <br />