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l')~'" P .;.J....O ~ Q Q , . ~ Q ~ ~ . .. /, E 1: " " Q ,. u . . Q ! ~ ~ ~ " " . Draft=Mean Annual Flow .. " ,., r t... Q - . " ~ ~ C! ..Q . Draft=90% of Mean Annual Flow 1: . ~ 1930 1950 1970 1990 ~ Q 1930 1950 1970 1990 Year Draft=75% of Mean Annual Flow Q ~ g u:: ~ (;j<D '"" ..... "Q U ~ ~ , . ~.... ~ g d'3 g 4!: E ~ ~ <3 . Q OQ <tc::i Year Draft=50% of Mean Annual Flow Q ~ '" ~~ ~ . '. .. ~ Q . . OQ Q:c:i 1930 1950 1970 1990 1930 1950 1910 1990 Vear Year . .- . Figure 6. Cumulative Deficit and probability of draft failure for different levels of river development at Archuleta. The draft levels are fractions of the 1929-93 mean annual flow, The solid line gives the accumulated deficit for the 1929-1993 record; the dash-dot line gives the accumulated deficit for the 1974- 93 record, and the thick solid line gives the probability of draft failure in any given year. The accumulated deficit for the full record and the last 20 years is the same for drafts equal to 75% and 50% of mean annual flow. The probability of draft failure is estimated using /owess with a 20 year moving window. As the level of development (draft) increases, pronounced differences in the storage needed to meet the draft are noted between the last 20 years of record and the full record, May 25, 1997 8 ;