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<br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />t).'" <br />....lJ.A. <br />Investigations into the Stationarity of San Juan River 1929 - 1993 Stream Flow Records at <br />Archuleta and Bluff <br /> <br />Upmanu Lall <br /> <br />Introduction <br /> <br />The objective of this work was to assess whether there is valuable information in the 1929- <br />1974 streamflow record at the Archuleta and Bluffsites, that is not contained in the 1974-93 <br />record. Specifically, the question is whether there are differences in the statistical properties of the <br />pre- and post-1974 data that are significant for water management. Statistics are calculated using a <br />20 year moving window to assess changes in the mean flow, the variability of the flow, and the <br />seasonality of the flows. An investigation of the impacts on reservoir storage needed to meet <br />various target yields and yield failure was also performed. The 1974-93 record exhibits significant <br />differences from the prior record in terms of these criteria. It is a relatively wet period. Use of the <br />prior data may lead to more reasonable and more stringent estimates of low flows and drought <br />conditions. <br /> <br />May 25, 1997 <br /> <br />1 I <br /> <br />1 <br />