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I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I O~~4 1'1' The Concept of Drought relief or emergency assistance to the affected areas or sectors. By following this approach, drought only receives the attention of decisionmakers when it is at peak levels of intensity and spatial extent and when water management options are quite limited, This approach is sometimes referred to as the "hydro-illogical cycle,'" where concern and panic lead to a reactive response to associated economic, social, and environmental impacts, followed by apathy when rains return to normal. This approach has been characterized as ineffective, poorly coordinated, and untimely (General Accounting Office [GAOl, 1979; Wilhite, et aI., 1986; Riebsame, et aI., 1991; Wilhite, 1993a). Not only is this approach extremely costly, relief provided through this process is often politically driven, programmatically misdirected, and poorly targeted. Relief often serves as a disincentive for the sustainable management of natural resources because it reinforces existing management practices, practices that may not be sustainable in the long term, The provision of relief has been the most common approach taken by Federal Government in the United States to alleviate the impacts of drought. This reactive approach is not good policy and must be replaced by an anticipatory, preventive approach that reduces risk (i.e" risk management) through the adoption of appropriate mitigation programs and policies. James Lee Witt of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recently concluded that the Nation will receive two dollars in savings from future disaster costs from every dollar spent on mitigation (Natural Hazards Observer, 1996). This is likely a very conservative estimate of the benefits received from investments in mitigation. Technological and social change is improving our Nation's ability to more effectively manage water and other shared natural resources during periods of drought. These changes can facilitate the shift to risk management because they will allow the Nation to address some of the more serious deficiencies of the crisis management approach. For example, our ability to monitor and disseminate critical drought-related information has been enhanced by new technologies such as automated weather stations, satellites, computers, and improved communication techniques (e.g., Internet). Previous drought response efforts have been hampered by a lack of adequate early warning systems and insufficient information flow within and between levels of government. Simultaneously, an improved understanding of complex atmospheric-oceanic systems and the development of new computer models have improved drought forecast skills for some regions. If they become part of I Hydro,illogical cycle is often used to explain the crisis management approach to drought management. The hydro-illogical cycle is discussed at the National Drought Mitigation Center's (NDMC) home page (http://enso,unLedulndmc) and at Wilhite 11993b), 5