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. POPULATION ESTIMATES BY AGE EL PASO COUNTY 1980 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 .. 40-44 li 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15 -19 10-14 5-9 0-4 20 30 30 20 10 0 10 POPULATION lin 000',1 FIGURE 4 POPULATION FORECASTS The Pikes Peak Area Council of Governments has developed a range of projections to the Year 2000 for population, households and employment expected in EI Paso County. To make these forecasts, alternative sets of assumptions were made for the major factors which influence regional growth: birth rates, death rates, rates of economic expansion, and the number of military assigned to the area. One of the most important factors, migration, was assumed to occu( in response to increasing employment and retirement opportunities in the region. The alternative assumptions are grouped into two sets: slow growth and rapid growth. Refer to Figure 5 for data on historical and forecasted population and employment growth. The slow growth forecast assumes that the birth rate would be at the zero population growth level of 2.1 children per family, that the number of military personnel assigned to the area would decline from the present level of about 33,000 to 22,000 in the Year 2000, and that economic expansion would occur primarily in the manufacturing sector of the economy. The rapid growth forecast assumes a birth rate of 2.6 children per family, that the number of military personnel assigned to the area would remain at its present level and that economic expansion would proceed at a rapid pace especially in the manufacturing sector of the economy. The exceptionally rapid growth which has occurred to date since 1950 is not expected to continue, even under the rapid growth forecast. This is due primarily to the expected leveling off of the number of mil itary assigned to the 21 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I