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Table 6 - HISTORICAL NONCOMMODITY-PRODUCING EMPLOYMENT BY SUBREGION Employment Percent Employment Percen t Employment Percent Subregion 1940 of Total 1950 of Total 1960 of Total (Thousand) (Thousand) (Thousand) Upper Missouri 39.0 46.2 53.3 54.3 69.1 63.7 Yellowstone 31.7 46.5 47.2 54.4 60.1 62.4 Western Dakota 31.3 37.0 44.8 44.5 56.4 54.1 Eastern Dakota 87.3 41.6 113.1 45.4 128.1 53.8 Platte-Niobrara 259.1 57.3 372.2 61.3 494.6 65.3 Middle Missouri 214.8 51.5 257.6 53.9 285.1 59.0 Kansas 133.7 48.3 175.0 53.1 221.3 64.4 Lower Missouri 337.1 52.4 421.1 55.0 531.1 62.2 - Missouri Region 1,134.0 50.7 1,484.3 54.7 1,845.8 61.8 Employment projections are contained in the foHow- ing chapter. It may be mentioned here that historic trends of the changing distribution of employment by sector continue into the future. Noncommodity- producing employment as a proportion of total employ, ment, both for the region and the Nation, is projected to increase to 71.5 and 69.2 percent, respectively. While this industrial sector contains some industries which are basic to particular local economies and are generative in that they support local employment, the majority of employment in this sector is of the trade and service variety. As such, they are typically the labor-intensive industries. They depend upon commodity-producing or export-based industries in the local area or may be said to be linked to these basic-type industries. Growth of employment in these industries is thus explained by and depends upon growth in the local export base. And because of their labor-intensive character, employment increases in these industries over time tend to be more than proportional to employment increases in the basic-type industries, which are generally highly capital- intensive. Therefore, projections of noncommodity- producing employment which show increasing shares of total employment are reasonable and to be expected. For water resource planning purposes, a separate breakout of employment in heavy water-using industries was made. Specifically, these are six industries within the manufacturing sector of the region which utilize relatively large volumes of water in the production process. These industries and their respective employ- ment levels during the historic period are shown in table 7. Ideally, for determining industrial water demands in the future, production, eithe! in constant dollars or units of output, rather than employment, would have been more appropriate proxy variables to use. However, employment data were used as an alternative because of their availability, historical continuity, and generally good reliability. The disadvantage in using employment data is that increases in labor productivity are not accounted for. Within each of the six major heavy water-using industries, employment, productivity, and 14 Table 7 - HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT IN HEAVY WATER,USING INDUSTRIES Industry 1940 1950 1960 Petroleum Refining 6,651 9,921 10,902 Paper and Allied Products 3,584 5,378 9,150 Primary Metals 5,452 13,251 12,367 Chemical Products 6,475 10,168 16,102 Food Products 66,995 88,177 106,768 Textile Mill Products 1,000 1,828 1,545 Missouri Region 90,157 128,723 156,834 water use may vary considerably for each plan t, depend- ing on materials, products, plant equipment, process, etc. In order to project future industrial water demands, assumptions were made regarding projected productivity increases. Generally, assumed productivity rates were merely extrapolations of historical rates. As can be seen in table 7, the food products industry accounted for the largest proportion of employment in the region's heavy water-using industries. Although the food products industry experienced employment gains over the 20-year period, it nevertheless represented a ff r t' , Small Dairy Plants Are Typical of the Food Processing Plants in the Missouri River Region Utilizing Local Agricultural Products