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<br />~NI <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />MEMORANDUM <br /> <br />o <br />'I <br />rv <br />N <br /> <br />November 3, 1977 <br /> <br />TO: Files <br /> <br />FR~1: Scott Mernitz <br /> <br />SUBJECT: Review of Initial Energy Supply and Demand Data Provided by <br />Federal Agencies for Use in the WRC l3(a) Assessments <br /> <br />TIlis lnemorandum concerns a detailed review of four reports and one summary <br />paper. The reports and summary paper supply initial data on projected <br />~rgy development (1985 and 2000) and energy water consumption; the data <br />~ provided by federal agencies through national laboratories for use in <br />the WRC l3(a) assessments. <br /> <br />A schematic chart showing relationships of the reports and summary paper <br />is attached (Figure 1). The body of this memorandum contains a brief <br />description of each report, followed by comments specific to that report <br />and its use in the l3(a) assessments. <br /> <br />. <br />-+i: <br /> <br />* (BROOKJ[;(VEN) Brookhaven- Lab. A Regional Disaggregation of ERDA's <br />Forecast 2 Energy Scenerio for the Year 2000. March, 1977 (Draft). <br /> <br />1. TIlis report disaggregates supply and demand data from the ERDA <br />Forecast 2 (Year 2000) to the 10 U. S. Census Regions. <br /> <br />2. The report presents schematic diagrams, showing absolute quantities <br />of projected nationwide reference energy systems for 1985, 1990, and 2000 <br />(pages l7-20a). The diagrams begin at resource extraction and carry <br />through to processing, transmission, and demand sectors. <br /> <br />3. ERDA's projection shows a nuclear contribution of 46.8% by the year <br />2000 to total electricity generation. <br /> <br />4. Ioe WSC states (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas) are <br />estimated to have the highest comparative advantage for converting to <br />solar energy. <br /> <br />~ 5. Models used in the Elu)A Forecast 2 Scenerio are (as extracted from <br />the report): <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />1. The Data Resources Inc. macroeconomic growth model (2), <br /> <br /> <br />used to specify the ~ong-run trends of consumption and <br /> <br /> <br />investment, and associated labor and capital requirements, <br /> <br />- - ~----=--- <br />