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<br />Federal Register I vol. 58, No, 18 r Friday, January 29. 19113 I Proposed Rul~
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<br />6587
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<br />river reachea where biological
<br />information is limited on the need! of
<br />these specie.. Thl. I'8Dge of flow
<br />scenarios will be evaluated for impe~
<br />from poleotial chaog.. ID flows. For
<br />river reac::hes where flow requirements
<br />of the fish are known, these flow. must
<br />be compared to preseotllIld historical
<br />flows, This aoaly.is will capture the
<br />costs of haviog endaogered fishJ're,ent '
<br />in the river including listing ao aitical
<br />hebitet designation cost., Where the
<br />data are availabla. flow scenarios will be
<br />developed, These flow scenario. will
<br />then be evaluated to determlDe possible
<br />costs aod benefits to hydropower
<br />production. recreation. water
<br />maoagement, etc, Costlbenefit data,must
<br />also be collected for activities not
<br />directly affected by water flow, All the_
<br />impacts will then have to be quantified
<br />and assembled into data basea for input
<br />into the economic model. Tho"national
<br />and regional economic effects will then
<br />be analyzed using the developed and
<br />calibrated model. Costs and benefits
<br />must then be ellocated between:
<br />(1) Listing effects and effects of the
<br />critical hahitat designation,
<br />(2) Effects among specie.. and
<br />(3) Effects among Mver reach.. being.
<br />proposed, The draft economic analysis
<br />will then be prepared and undergo e
<br />public review prior to incorporating the.
<br />results into the final mle.
<br />The economic analysis of critical
<br />hahitat designetian. bes two major
<br />components. The first component
<br />involves identifying the potential
<br />impacts of the critical habitat
<br />designations and estimating their
<br />magnitude. The second component
<br />involves davelaplDg and utilizing
<br />economic models to demonstrate how
<br />the pOSItive and negative economic
<br />impacts may affect various economic
<br />interests in the Basin, and the economy
<br />of the Basin as . whole, The major types
<br />of economic impacts that may occur
<br />have been identified. aod efforts are
<br />under way to estimate their magnitude.
<br />This iacludes davelopment of an input-
<br />output model for each of the ""ven
<br />States in the Basin. and a computerized
<br />model for tha antire Basin,
<br />Because of lba large gaar.aphical area
<br />of the study and the camp ex nature of
<br />potential impacts. a considerable
<br />amount of work on economic impacts
<br />remains to be camplated. Specifically,
<br />computerized modeling studies must be
<br />completed to assess the potential effects
<br />of critical habitat de.ignatian on the
<br />seven~State area. Furthennore, a Basin.
<br />wide survey of recreational resources
<br />must be completed to assess the
<br />potential magnitude of recreational
<br />impacts, finally, e Basin-wide economic
<br />model must be developed end
<br />
<br />parameterized to ...... the oversJJ
<br />economic conaequEllnces of positive and
<br />negative impacts to the various
<br />economic interests throughout the
<br />Basin. These activities requinl a
<br />complex and diverse sat of economic
<br />ectivities over a larga geographic area
<br />and will requiIe time to complete,
<br />The Service', economic an8.lysi. will
<br />use a Computahle General EquilibriUIII
<br />Model (CGE Model) to d~he the
<br />inte"..lationahipslD the economy at a
<br />chosen level of spatial aggregation (e,g"
<br />counties)aod,the relatianabip. between
<br />sectors (e,g~ recreation and
<br />hydropower). In addition. the model
<br />allow. for anelysia of resource
<br />reallocation proposals (e,g.. change. ID
<br />rivar flaw, as representad by increased
<br />or decraased hydropower productionllD
<br />a manner such that the net effects. not
<br />just the total effects, are calculated,
<br />Given this capability. the impacts are
<br />properly represented. as net impacts
<br />throughout the economy; thus. the
<br />model provides a comprehensive
<br />assessment of economic impacts.
<br />CGE Modela are excellent tools to
<br />estimete the direct and indirect
<br />economic impacts of resoul'C9
<br />reallocation decisions, such 8S critical
<br />hebitat designation, ,CGE Model.
<br />explicitly predict tba prica adjustments
<br />observed ID an economy. It i. important
<br />to capture tha adjustment of the prices
<br />of goods aod services in the economy
<br />which result from changes in how
<br />resources are utilized, Failure to
<br />,represent and ellow for changes, such as
<br />price changes. will resultla e
<br />misrepresentation of the true impacts of
<br />critical hllbitat designation, CGE Models
<br />also will allow substitution possibilities
<br />in production and consumption.
<br />The source of regional production
<br />data to he used in tha analysi. i. the
<br />Department of Agriculture's Forest
<br />Service's lMPLAN Project. These dala
<br />represent the economic flow between
<br />sectors in the ecoDOI:r..y, such as
<br />purchases of inputs from one industry
<br />to be used in another industry, The CGll
<br />Model captures these economic
<br />interactions of consumers, production
<br />sectors. and government sectors.
<br />The number of economic sectors in
<br />the IMPL.'\N data set has been collapsed
<br />from 523 to 20 sectors. Tha number of
<br />sectors was reduced by merging related
<br />activities to malr.e the analysis traC'.able.
<br />This allows focus on those sectors
<br />representing the most significant
<br />economic activities associated with the
<br />Basin. These 20 sectors capture the
<br />principal activities aSSociated with
<br />hydrll<!lec'.ric power, agriculture.
<br />municipal. industry, recreation. mL"1ing,
<br />and oil and gas production, Other data,
<br />which will be incorporated into the CGE
<br />
<br />Model. include the Consumar
<br />Expenditure Survey. \hB Bweau of ,
<br />Economic Analysia' capital .tocl: data
<br />and value added dota, the Cen.u. of
<br />Agriculture land use by crop type data.
<br />and recreation data.
<br />Any direct impacts Will 0=11' at sub-
<br />State levels; therefore, it is appropriets
<br />to bese tha analysis on sub-State data.
<br />The CGE Modal allows for inputs et the
<br />county level and incJuda. ID excess of
<br />150 countie, of the seven-State region. '
<br />Thia level of desegregated county data
<br />wa. chosen because eny direct impa~
<br />will be concentrated at the county lavel.
<br />while total impacts moy be observed
<br />region wide.
<br />A. a result of the time constraints
<br />under which thi. initial proposed
<br />-critical habitat designetion was
<br />prepared and the magnitude of the
<br />issues and area under consideration, the
<br />Service's economic analysis has Dot
<br />been completed. However, onco
<br />cemplated it will be made available for
<br />public review and then be incorporated
<br />in the final rule,
<br />
<br />A'I'ailable Conservation Mealores
<br />
<br />Conservation measUIBS provided to
<br />species listed es endaogered or
<br />threatened under the AcIlDcluda
<br />recognition, recovery adiOIUl,
<br />requirements for Federal protection. and
<br />prohibitions against certain practices.
<br />Recognition through listing
<br />encourages and results in co.nser;vation
<br />ections by Federal. State. and private
<br />egencies, groups. and individuals, The
<br />Act provides for possihlelaod end weter
<br />acauisitions in coooenrt.ion with States
<br />and requi~ that nicavery actions be
<br />carried out for all listed specie., The
<br />req",,,,ments for Federal Agentie. with
<br />respect to protection of designeted
<br />critJcal hahitat of a faderaJly listed
<br />species and prohibition. against taking
<br />are discussed below,
<br />&.clian 7 of the Act requires, Federal
<br />AgenCies to evaluate their actions with
<br />res~ect.to any spedes tha.t is proposed
<br />Dr listed as endangered or threatened,
<br />and with respect to any critical bahitat
<br />Loat i; desig.~ated or proposed fat the
<br />species. Section 7(a)(4) of the Act and
<br />50 CFR 402.10 require Federal Agencies
<br />to confer infonnally with the Service on
<br />any action that is lll.ely to result in
<br />d9struction or adverse modification of
<br />proposed critical habitat, If critical
<br />habitat is subsequently designated,
<br />sec:ian 7(a)(2) requires Federal Agencias
<br />to insure that activities thay authorize.
<br />fund, or carry out are not likely to
<br />destroy or adversely modify critical
<br />habitat. If a Federal action may at Teet a
<br />bted species or its cntical habitat, the
<br />responsibia Federal Agency must enter
<br />into consultation with the Service,
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