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<br />-.J ~' <br />Federal Register I vol. 58, No, 18 r Friday, January 29. 19113 I Proposed Rul~ <br /> <br />6587 <br /> <br />river reachea where biological <br />information is limited on the need! of <br />these specie.. Thl. I'8Dge of flow <br />scenarios will be evaluated for impe~ <br />from poleotial chaog.. ID flows. For <br />river reac::hes where flow requirements <br />of the fish are known, these flow. must <br />be compared to preseotllIld historical <br />flows, This aoaly.is will capture the <br />costs of haviog endaogered fishJ're,ent ' <br />in the river including listing ao aitical <br />hebitet designation cost., Where the <br />data are availabla. flow scenarios will be <br />developed, These flow scenario. will <br />then be evaluated to determlDe possible <br />costs aod benefits to hydropower <br />production. recreation. water <br />maoagement, etc, Costlbenefit data,must <br />also be collected for activities not <br />directly affected by water flow, All the_ <br />impacts will then have to be quantified <br />and assembled into data basea for input <br />into the economic model. Tho"national <br />and regional economic effects will then <br />be analyzed using the developed and <br />calibrated model. Costs and benefits <br />must then be ellocated between: <br />(1) Listing effects and effects of the <br />critical hahitat designation, <br />(2) Effects among specie.. and <br />(3) Effects among Mver reach.. being. <br />proposed, The draft economic analysis <br />will then be prepared and undergo e <br />public review prior to incorporating the. <br />results into the final mle. <br />The economic analysis of critical <br />hahitat designetian. bes two major <br />components. The first component <br />involves identifying the potential <br />impacts of the critical habitat <br />designations and estimating their <br />magnitude. The second component <br />involves davelaplDg and utilizing <br />economic models to demonstrate how <br />the pOSItive and negative economic <br />impacts may affect various economic <br />interests in the Basin, and the economy <br />of the Basin as . whole, The major types <br />of economic impacts that may occur <br />have been identified. aod efforts are <br />under way to estimate their magnitude. <br />This iacludes davelopment of an input- <br />output model for each of the ""ven <br />States in the Basin. and a computerized <br />model for tha antire Basin, <br />Because of lba large gaar.aphical area <br />of the study and the camp ex nature of <br />potential impacts. a considerable <br />amount of work on economic impacts <br />remains to be camplated. Specifically, <br />computerized modeling studies must be <br />completed to assess the potential effects <br />of critical habitat de.ignatian on the <br />seven~State area. Furthennore, a Basin. <br />wide survey of recreational resources <br />must be completed to assess the <br />potential magnitude of recreational <br />impacts, finally, e Basin-wide economic <br />model must be developed end <br /> <br />parameterized to ...... the oversJJ <br />economic conaequEllnces of positive and <br />negative impacts to the various <br />economic interests throughout the <br />Basin. These activities requinl a <br />complex and diverse sat of economic <br />ectivities over a larga geographic area <br />and will requiIe time to complete, <br />The Service', economic an8.lysi. will <br />use a Computahle General EquilibriUIII <br />Model (CGE Model) to d~he the <br />inte"..lationahipslD the economy at a <br />chosen level of spatial aggregation (e,g" <br />counties)aod,the relatianabip. between <br />sectors (e,g~ recreation and <br />hydropower). In addition. the model <br />allow. for anelysia of resource <br />reallocation proposals (e,g.. change. ID <br />rivar flaw, as representad by increased <br />or decraased hydropower productionllD <br />a manner such that the net effects. not <br />just the total effects, are calculated, <br />Given this capability. the impacts are <br />properly represented. as net impacts <br />throughout the economy; thus. the <br />model provides a comprehensive <br />assessment of economic impacts. <br />CGE Modela are excellent tools to <br />estimete the direct and indirect <br />economic impacts of resoul'C9 <br />reallocation decisions, such 8S critical <br />hebitat designation, ,CGE Model. <br />explicitly predict tba prica adjustments <br />observed ID an economy. It i. important <br />to capture tha adjustment of the prices <br />of goods aod services in the economy <br />which result from changes in how <br />resources are utilized, Failure to <br />,represent and ellow for changes, such as <br />price changes. will resultla e <br />misrepresentation of the true impacts of <br />critical hllbitat designation, CGE Models <br />also will allow substitution possibilities <br />in production and consumption. <br />The source of regional production <br />data to he used in tha analysi. i. the <br />Department of Agriculture's Forest <br />Service's lMPLAN Project. These dala <br />represent the economic flow between <br />sectors in the ecoDOI:r..y, such as <br />purchases of inputs from one industry <br />to be used in another industry, The CGll <br />Model captures these economic <br />interactions of consumers, production <br />sectors. and government sectors. <br />The number of economic sectors in <br />the IMPL.'\N data set has been collapsed <br />from 523 to 20 sectors. Tha number of <br />sectors was reduced by merging related <br />activities to malr.e the analysis traC'.able. <br />This allows focus on those sectors <br />representing the most significant <br />economic activities associated with the <br />Basin. These 20 sectors capture the <br />principal activities aSSociated with <br />hydrll<!lec'.ric power, agriculture. <br />municipal. industry, recreation. mL"1ing, <br />and oil and gas production, Other data, <br />which will be incorporated into the CGE <br /> <br />Model. include the Consumar <br />Expenditure Survey. \hB Bweau of , <br />Economic Analysia' capital .tocl: data <br />and value added dota, the Cen.u. of <br />Agriculture land use by crop type data. <br />and recreation data. <br />Any direct impacts Will 0=11' at sub- <br />State levels; therefore, it is appropriets <br />to bese tha analysis on sub-State data. <br />The CGE Modal allows for inputs et the <br />county level and incJuda. ID excess of <br />150 countie, of the seven-State region. ' <br />Thia level of desegregated county data <br />wa. chosen because eny direct impa~ <br />will be concentrated at the county lavel. <br />while total impacts moy be observed <br />region wide. <br />A. a result of the time constraints <br />under which thi. initial proposed <br />-critical habitat designetion was <br />prepared and the magnitude of the <br />issues and area under consideration, the <br />Service's economic analysis has Dot <br />been completed. However, onco <br />cemplated it will be made available for <br />public review and then be incorporated <br />in the final rule, <br /> <br />A'I'ailable Conservation Mealores <br /> <br />Conservation measUIBS provided to <br />species listed es endaogered or <br />threatened under the AcIlDcluda <br />recognition, recovery adiOIUl, <br />requirements for Federal protection. and <br />prohibitions against certain practices. <br />Recognition through listing <br />encourages and results in co.nser;vation <br />ections by Federal. State. and private <br />egencies, groups. and individuals, The <br />Act provides for possihlelaod end weter <br />acauisitions in coooenrt.ion with States <br />and requi~ that nicavery actions be <br />carried out for all listed specie., The <br />req",,,,ments for Federal Agentie. with <br />respect to protection of designeted <br />critJcal hahitat of a faderaJly listed <br />species and prohibition. against taking <br />are discussed below, <br />&.clian 7 of the Act requires, Federal <br />AgenCies to evaluate their actions with <br />res~ect.to any spedes tha.t is proposed <br />Dr listed as endangered or threatened, <br />and with respect to any critical bahitat <br />Loat i; desig.~ated or proposed fat the <br />species. Section 7(a)(4) of the Act and <br />50 CFR 402.10 require Federal Agencies <br />to confer infonnally with the Service on <br />any action that is lll.ely to result in <br />d9struction or adverse modification of <br />proposed critical habitat, If critical <br />habitat is subsequently designated, <br />sec:ian 7(a)(2) requires Federal Agencias <br />to insure that activities thay authorize. <br />fund, or carry out are not likely to <br />destroy or adversely modify critical <br />habitat. If a Federal action may at Teet a <br />bted species or its cntical habitat, the <br />responsibia Federal Agency must enter <br />into consultation with the Service, <br />