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<br />o <br />en Basin. While it is impossible to quantify the effect which these latter factors <br />c..o <br />00 may have upon the availability of water for EETs (or any other use for that <br /> <br />matter), it is <br /> <br />nonetpe1ess apparent that they are part of the institutional <br /> <br />framework within which future questions of water availability must be addressed. <br /> <br />Fourth, and finally, the above conclusion must be qualified by the obser- <br /> <br />vat ion that the siting pattern of EETs as between the various Upper Basin states <br /> <br />could be constrained by interstate compact considerations. This is because the <br /> <br />Upper Colorado River Basin Compact allocates set percentages of the water avai1- <br /> <br />able to the Upper Basin to each Upper 'Division state. Consequently, the level of <br /> <br />EET development in anyone state could be subject to limitations even though the <br /> <br />overall size of the EET industry in the Upper Basin did not exceed 1.5 million <br /> <br />barrels per day. The states most likely to confront this situation, given the <br /> <br />"worst case" assumptions being made, are Colorado and New Mexico. <br /> <br />Besides the four above-mentioned qualifications, the conclusion that the <br /> <br />water demands of a synfuels industry of up to about 1.5 million barrels per day <br /> <br />could be satisfied without reducing other consumptive uses is, as was noted at <br /> <br />the outset, premised upon a "worst case" set of assumptions. The first of these <br /> <br />assumptions concerns future runoff conditions. The conclusion assumes that the <br /> <br />future average annual natural flow of the Colorado River at the compact point 1 <br /> <br />(Lees Ferry) ~ill be 13.8 maf. This was in fact the estimated natural flow for <br /> <br />the period 1930-1974, which span of time also encompasses the most critical <br /> <br />period of record (i.e., 1931~1964). <br /> <br />The second major assumption concerns projections of depletions by non-EET <br /> <br />uses. In this regard, ,the conclusion assumes that average annual'dapletions by <br /> <br />1. The natural, or virgin, flow of a river is that flow which would have occurred <br />if the river were in its natural state unaffected by the activities of man. <br /> <br />ciii <br />